Position IDGL-20260906-005

Published position · Football · Dutch Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar

Heerenveen to win · Match Winner

CLOSED TO NEW ENTRIES · ODDSStarts 2026-09-06 12:30 UTC

UPCOMING

Upcoming

Starts in 4 h 34 min

Sep 6 · 12:30 UTC · the live state appears at kick-off.

Position now

Selection: Heerenveen to win
Market: Match Winner

Recorded odds: 4.300
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 4.29+

Risk: 1.00u
Event start: 2026-09-06 12:30 UTC

Observed at: unibet_nl · region eu
Observed: 2026-09-06 06:41 UTC
Published (locked): 2026-09-06 06:41 UTC

What this status means

The available odds have fallen below the Minimum Qualifying Odds, so the position is closed to new entries at the current odds. The original position stays on record at its Recorded Odds and is settled normally.

The recorded operator is the source at which GLINTARY observed the price. It is not a recommendation and not a guarantee that the price is available to you. View odds evidence →

SC Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar: Value Assessment on Extended Home Price

SC Heerenveen are priced at 4.300 with unibet_nl against a market median of 3.850 across 55 operators. While the price clears initial screening thresholds, the proposition faces severe sporting headwinds against league-leading AZ Alkmaar (4-0-0) alongside defensive absences for Heerenveen and an elevated market dispersion of 11.69%.

The case ↓Sources ↓Verification ↓

What the price means

Locked odds: 4.300
Implied probability: 23.3%; 100 ÷ the decimal odds. A statement about the price, not a prediction.
De-vigged market probability: 24.2%; The market-implied probability after removing the reference bookmaker margin, from the fair price on the research record.
Edge over fair price: +3.9%; Recorded price against the de-vigged fair price at research time.

Market underdogThe de-vigged market probability of this side was below the favourite's across the 3-way market at lock time.

Why it qualified

The case as it was frozen at lock, point by point.

The best available decimal price of 4.300 via unibet_nl represents a noticeable premium over the 55-operator median reference price of 3.850.
SC Heerenveen host the fixture at Abe Lenstra Stadion holding 5 points through their opening 4 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss) with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded (CS-9a7d847f-82a, CL-b1927bad-ca3).
AZ Alkmaar contend with their own squad absences, with defender Denso Kasius and midfielder Stije Resink ruled out due to injury (CL-c2af3523-b31).

A decimal price of 4.300 implies an approximate win probability of 23.3% for Heerenveen.

Risks / what could change

The qualitative evidence significantly favours AZ Alkmaar, who are undefeated at 4-0-0 with 13 goals scored, while Heerenveen are missing key defensive personnel; the apparent mathematical edge at 4.30 relies on an outlier quote at the extreme edge of market dispersion (11.69% vs 12.00% ceiling) against a market median of 3.85.

AZ Alkmaar enter in dominant form, sitting 1st in the Eredivisie with a perfect 4-0-0 record, having scored 13 goals and conceded only 3 (CL-fb174620-b73, CS-d6c83877-1b9).
Heerenveen suffer significant personnel losses with defenders Mats Egbring and Mees Hilgers alongside midfielder Marcus Linday ruled out (CL-90e303c7-91c).
The apparent margin over the threshold is narrow (4.300 vs 4.280 required), meaning minor deviations in de-vig assumptions remove the perceived edge.
Elevated bookmaker dispersion (11.69%) suggests unibet_nl's quote may be an isolated outlier rather than a consensus mispricing.

A published position is a research view, not a claim of certainty. Every position can lose.

Evidence and sources

TIER 2 · TRUSTED LOCAL
Sc Heerenveen – AZ Alkmaar prediction 06.09.2026 - Transfermarkt ↗
The Eredivisie matchup on Sunday, September 6, 2026, features SC Heerenveen hosting AZ Alkmaar at the Abe Lenstra Stadion, with kickoff scheduled for 13:30. This encounter marks Matchday 5 of the season, with the officiating duties entrusted to referee Jeroen Manschot. SC Heerenveen enters this match with a total of 5 points, placing them 11th in the league table, while AZ Alkmaar currently holds · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Heerenveen vs. AZ Alkmaar - prediction, team news, lineups ↗
W W W W AZ Alkmaar form (all competitions): W W W W W ## Team News /https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F08%2Fjacob-trenskow-in-action-for-heerenveen-on-august-9-2026-6a876808ecdb9599776038.jpg) © Iconsport / Pro Shots Heerenveen are without the injured Marcus Linday (knee), Mats Egbring (ankle) and Mees Hilgers (knee), the latter of whom has · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Betting Tips ... ↗
Kees Smit Groin Position: Midfielder Matches: 4 Goals: - Assists: 2 Expected return: 2026-09-06 Stije Resink Cruciate ligame Position: Midfielder Matches: - Goals: - Assists: - Expected return: - Matej Sin Other Position: Midfielder Matches: - Goals: - Assists: - Expected return: - Denso Kasius Groin Position: Defender Matches: - Goals: - Assists: - Expected return: - Team Squads #### · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Ajax vs PSV Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 05 Sep 2026 ↗
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P | --- --- --- --- | | 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 | | 2 | Go Ahead E. | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 | | 3 | PSV | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | | 4 | Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 | | 5 | Groningen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 3 | | 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 | | 7 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 | | 8 | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 1 | 0 · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 05 Sep 2026 ↗
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P | --- --- --- --- | | 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 | | 2 | Go Ahead E. | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 | | 3 | PSV | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | | 4 | Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 | | 5 | Groningen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 3 | | 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 | | 7 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 | | 8 | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 1 | 0 · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord Prediction, Betting Tips ... ↗
Sportsgambler # NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 05 Sep 2026 NEC Nijmegen logo Feyenoord Rotterdam logo ## NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord Predictions ### Feyenoord To Win @ 2.25 Stake logo Feyenoord look like the wager to select on the Full-Time Result market, especially as a price of 2.25 is available. Back this value pick feeling confident when they go up aga · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
How to get PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam tickets: Eredivisie prices, fixture information, last-minute sales & more ↗
PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam kicks off at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven, with the match scheduled for September 2026. crest Eredivisie - Game Week 6 Philips Stadion ## PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie: Everything you need to know ### PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Form [...] | # | P | W | D | L | F | A | +/- | PTS | Form | --- --- --- --- --- | | 1 | AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkma · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
立教池袋中学校・高等学校 | Virtual tour generated by Panotour ↗
Get Adobe Flash player to visualize the Virtual Tour : 立教池袋中学校・高等学校 (Virtual tour generated by Panotour) · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Preview: Heerenveen vs FC Twente - prediction, team news, lineups - Sports Mole ↗
Lars Unnerstall and Naci Unuvar are both yet to play for the away side this term, and remain out of contention. Marko Pjaca has registered a direct goal contribution in each of his last three matches, continuing his impressive start since joining on a free transfer. Heerenveen possible starting lineup: Klaverboer; Zagaritis, Willemsen, Kersten, Braude; Linday, Proper; Trenskow, Meerveld, Oyen; · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Dutch Eredivisie 2026/27: Season Guide — Key Dates, Fixtures & Betting Preview ↗
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar | 52 | +7 | UEL (as KNVB Cup winners) | Won the KNVB Cup, beating NEC in the final. | | 16 | FC Volendam (R) | 32 | -20 | — | Relegated via play-off — lost to Willem II on penalties. | | 17 | NAC Breda (R) | 29 | -23 | — | Directly relegated. | | 18 | Heracles Almelo (R) | 19 | -50 | — | Directly relegated. Worst defensive record (85 conceded). | [...] The squad have genuine quali · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
DUTCH EREDIVISIE 2026/27 SEASON PREVIEW - Football Oranje ↗
###### Latest On Predictions ## DUTCH EREDIVISIE 2026/27 SEASO... It's time for our BIG Dutch Eredivisie season preview! Football-Oranje's ... Dutch Eredivisie Season Preview 2025/26 | Podcast analysing every team ## Dutch Eredivisie Season Previe... A new season of Dutch football is here! Football-Oranje's Michael ... ###### Latest On Podcast ## Why AZ Alkmaar Have the Best A... Is AZ Alk · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
SC Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar - live score, predicted ... ↗
EgbringAnkle injuryEarly September 2026 Denso Kasius Groin injury / A few days KasiusGroin injuryA few days Stije Resink Knee injury / Early January 2027 ResinkKnee injuryEarly January 2027 ## Team form Willem II 2 - 2 SC Heerenveen SC Heerenveen 0 - 2 PEC Zwolle Ajax 2 - 2 SC Heerenveen SC Heerenveen 1 - 0 FC Twente SC Heerenveen 4 - 4 OH L · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
PREVIEW | AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk - team news, lineups, predictions - Yahoo Sports ↗
AZ Alkmaar ( vs Heerenveen 2026-04-12): Rome Oduro, Elijah Dijkstra, Wouter Goes, Alexandre Penetra, Mees de Wit, Kees Smit, Jordy Clasie, Isak Jensen, Sven Mijnans, Ro-Zangelo Daal, Troy Parrott Shakhtar Donetsk ( vs LNZ Cherkasy 2026-04-13): Dmytro Riznyk, Yukhym Konoplia, Marlon, Valeriy Bondar, Pedro Henrique, Egor Nazaryna, Alisson Santana, Pedrinho, Artem Bondarenko, Eguinaldo, Lassina Trao · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats ↗
TV schedules # AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar — Sun, September 20, 12:30 PM UTC Eredivisie Round 7 Eredivisie Round 7 AFAS Stadion AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar TelstarTelstar # AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar — Sun, September 20, 12:30 PM UTC Eredivisie Round 7 Eredivisie Round 7 AFAS Stadion AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar TelstarTelstar ## Injured and suspended players Denso Kasius Groin injury / A · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
AZ Alkmaar (W) vs FC Utrecht (W) - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats ↗
## About the match AZ Alkmaar faces FC Utrecht at AFAS Trainingscomplex on Sun, Sep 6, 2026, 14:45 UTC. This match is part of the Eredivisie Vrouwen. You can check the recent head-to-head encounters, as well as full H2H record on this page to see how AZ Alkmaar and FC Utrecht have fared against each other in the past. On FotMob, you can follow the AZ Alkmaar vs FC Utrecht live score with a full s · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Netherlands Eredivisie Injuries & Suspensions ↗
LeagueScotland - PremiershipSpain - La LigaSpain - La Liga 2Sweden - AllsvenskanSwitzerland - Super LeagueTurkey - Super LigUEFA - Champions LeagueUEFA - Euro 2028UEFA - Europa Conference LeagueUEFA - Europa LeagueUSA - MLS [...] Sportsgambler # Eredivisie Injuries & Suspensions [...] Netherlands ### AZ Alkmaar Stake logo ### Ajax Stake logo ### Cambuur Stake logo ### Den Haag Stake logo · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Preview: AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen - prediction, team news, lineups ↗
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Heerenveen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups. · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
FC Twente (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats ↗
FC Twente (W) vs SC Heerenveen (W) on Sun, Sep 6, 2026, 14:45 UTC. Check live results, H2H, match stats, lineups, player ratings, insights, team forms, · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar LIVE 06/09/2026 | Football ↗
# Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar (06/09/2026) FavoritesFootballTennisBasketballHockeyGolfFormula 1BaseballSnooker France gouvernement #### Les jeux d’argent et de hasard peuvent être dangereux : pertes d’argent, conflits familiaux, addiction… Retrouvez nos conseils sur www.joueurs-info-service.fr (09-74-75-13-13, appel non surtaxé) 18+ | Erlaubtes Glücksspiel gemäß der Whitelist | Suchtrisiken | Hi · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Eredivisie Round Up: Feyenoord struggle to victory - Football Oranje ↗
###### Latest On Predictions ## DUTCH EREDIVISIE 2026/27 SEASO... It's time for our BIG Dutch Eredivisie season preview! Football-Oranje's ... Dutch Eredivisie Season Preview 2025/26 | Podcast analysing every team ## Dutch Eredivisie Season Previe... A new season of Dutch football is here! Football-Oranje's Michael ... ###### Latest On Podcast ## Why AZ Alkmaar Have the Best A... Is AZ Alk · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Mats Egbring (Heerenveen) - Bio, stats and news ↗
Mats Egbring (Netherlands, 19) is a football player, currently playing for Heerenveen in Netherlands. Ankle injury - Expected back: Early September 2026. · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Utrecht v G.A. Eagles 05/09/2026 | Football ↗
18+ Ministério da Fazenda adverte: Aposta não é investimento. 21+ Участь в азартних іграх може викликати ігрову залежність. Дотримуйтеся правил (принципів) відповідальної гри Loading... #### 21+ | COMPETENT REGULATOR EEEP | RISK OF ADDICTION & LOSS OF PROPERTY | KETHEA HELPLINE: 210 9237777 | PLAY RESPONSIBLY & SAFELY | France gouvernement #### Les jeux d’argent et de hasard peuvent être d · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC
TIER 3 · SECONDARY
Eredivisie Round Up: NEC and Twente win big ↗
There were four matches in the Eredivisie on Saturday and below is a round up of all the action. Follow Football-Oranje on X. · retrieved 2026-09-06 06:35 UTC

Odds evidence records · 1

Provider is the data feed that delivered the observation; operator is the source at which the odds were shown. The recorded operator is the source at which GLINTARY observed the price. It is not a recommendation and not a guarantee that the price is available to you.

Evidence ID: OE-056587e951284590
Provider: the-odds-api
Operator: unibet_nl
Region: eu
Odds: 4.300
Observed: 2026-09-06 06:41 UTC
Evidence hash: 4a94a9a35252eb64978a835c7dcc1a52aac31e6e0b22bc5959ca59d898d0db80

Record and verification

ProofVERIFIED

Batch: BOARD-20260906-C
Committed: 2026-09-06 06:42 UTC
Revealed: 2026-09-06 06:42 UTC

Proof fields

Merkle root

875ce1dfa5e04511fdd21f347755a5b6f9dcaf065b402f2655abdb122e00eb8e

Record fingerprint

4bcca085a55425a8876c040314c050f9ecfd01f769952059e7a821028cbfd2be

Check this position

How verification works · Public Ledger · All positions · The research candidate behind this position

Record detailsIdentifiers, versions and thresholds, for quoting a value.

Position IDGL-20260906-005

Event IDEV-20260906-a994b4246edc

Market reference: 3.850
Source / operator: unibet_nl
Source region: eu
Odds observed: 2026-09-06 06:41 UTC
Published (locked): 2026-09-06 06:41 UTC
Evidence grade: B+
Methodology: v1.0
Minimum Qualifying Odds basis: Analyst threshold

Reference market information. Availability varies by time, operator and jurisdiction.

Changes and settlement

The event has not started. Any change to this record is published here and in the change log.

Updates

2026-09-06 07:18 UTCSTATUS CHANGEOPEN → CLOSED TO NEW ENTRIES · ODDS
Current best odds 4.100 are below the minimum qualifying odds 4.29. Closed to new entries at the current odds; the original position stays on record at its recorded odds and settles normally.
by autonomous-engineevent hash ddf65f769cc8…

Full change logEvery event appended to this record, including the routine ones.

2026-09-06 06:41 UTCLOCKEDOPEN
Position locked at 4.300 (unibet_nl, eu). Acceptable at 4.29 or better. Execution class: GLOBAL_REFERENCE_ONLY.
by autonomous-engineevent hash 589dbc87b86f…
2026-09-06 06:42 UTCCOMMITTED
Committed in batch BOARD-20260906-C. Root 875ce1dfa5e04511…
by autonomous-engineevent hash adef042ac2e2…
2026-09-06 06:42 UTCREVEALED
Canonical payload, nonce and inclusion proof published.
by autonomous-engineevent hash d705dd6f88eb…
2026-09-06 07:18 UTCSTATUS CHANGEOPEN → CLOSED TO NEW ENTRIES · ODDS
Current best odds 4.100 are below the minimum qualifying odds 4.29. Closed to new entries at the current odds; the original position stays on record at its recorded odds and settles normally.
by autonomous-engineevent hash ddf65f769cc8…