This candidate passed every gate and was locked as GL-20260906-005. The position record is the immutable, committed statement; this page is the research and decision trail behind it.
Decision
Outcome
Published
Decided
Main reason
Every gate passed.
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
SC Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar: Value Assessment on Extended Home Price
SC Heerenveen are priced at 4.300 with unibet_nl against a market median of 3.850 across 55 operators. While the price clears initial screening thresholds, the proposition faces severe sporting headwinds against league-leading AZ Alkmaar (4-0-0) alongside defensive absences for Heerenveen and an elevated market dispersion of 11.69%.
Primary case
The best available decimal price of 4.300 via unibet_nl represents a noticeable premium over the 55-operator median reference price of 3.850.
SC Heerenveen host the fixture at Abe Lenstra Stadion holding 5 points through their opening 4 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss) with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded (CS-9a7d847f-82a, CL-b1927bad-ca3).
AZ Alkmaar contend with their own squad absences, with defender Denso Kasius and midfielder Stije Resink ruled out due to injury (CL-c2af3523-b31).
Major uncertainty
The qualitative evidence significantly favours AZ Alkmaar, who are undefeated at 4-0-0 with 13 goals scored, while Heerenveen are missing key defensive personnel; the apparent mathematical edge at 4.30 relies on an outlier quote at the extreme edge of market dispersion (11.69% vs 12.00% ceiling) against a market median of 3.85.
Market context
The best global price stands at 4.300 with unibet_nl in the EU region, observed on September 6, 2026 at 06:34 UTC.
The consensus reference price sits at a median of 3.850 across 55 tracked operators.
Market dispersion is elevated at 11.69%, approaching the operational ceiling of 12.00%.
No historical price trajectory or movement is recorded, reflecting a single captured sample.
What the price requires
A decimal price of 4.300 implies an approximate win probability of 23.3% for Heerenveen.
For positive expected value, Heerenveen's true win probability must exceed the computed break-even mark, clearing the minimum acceptable price threshold of 4.280.
The margin of safety is tight, clearing the 4.280 threshold by just 0.02 decimal points.
Material findings and their support5
Injury · material · for the caseHeerenveen defenders Mats Egbring (ankle) and Mees Hilgers (knee), along with midfielder Marcus Linday (knee), are ruled out with injuries.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseAZ Alkmaar defender Denso Kasius (groin) and midfielder Stije Resink (knee/ACL) are ruled out with injuries.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseAZ Alkmaar enters Matchday 5 top of the Eredivisie standings with a 4-0-0 record (12 points, 13 goals scored, 3 conceded).Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseSC Heerenveen enters the match in 11th place in the Eredivisie with 5 points through 4 games (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss).Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match is scheduled to be held at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Heerenveen, with Jeroen Manschot appointed as the referee.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The qualitative evidence significantly favours AZ Alkmaar, who are undefeated at 4-0-0 with 13 goals scored, while Heerenveen are missing key defensive personnel; the apparent mathematical edge at 4.30 relies on an outlier quote at the extreme edge of market dispersion (11.69% vs 12.00% ceiling) against a market median of 3.85.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The median operator price is 3.85, corresponding to an implied probability well above unibet_nl's 4.30 quote, reflecting that the broader market treats Heerenveen as clear underdogs against the league leaders.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.300
Market reference
3.850 · 55 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.29 · edge 3.91%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
