This candidate passed every gate and was locked as GL-20260906-004. The position record is the immutable, committed statement; this page is the research and decision trail behind it.
Decision
Outcome
Published
Decided
Main reason
Every gate passed.
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
Primeira Liga: Gil Vicente vs Académico de Viseu
Académico de Viseu visits Gil Vicente at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos seeking their first top-flight victory. Gil Vicente enters unbeaten through three rounds with zero goals conceded, while Académico de Viseu sits in 16th with two points from four matches. A market price of 4.000 on Smarkets clears the de-vig fair threshold of 3.98, though the margin of clearance is narrow amidst high market dispersion.
Primary case
Académico de Viseu is competing in their first-ever Primeira Liga season and seeks their first win following two draws and two losses in four fixtures (CL-d42f8dc0-be7, CL-b363b77f-3ab).
Forward André Clóvis spearheads the Académico de Viseu attack, having scored two of the club's four league goals this season (CL-2021f36b-d41).
Gil Vicente sits in 6th place with seven points from three matches (2 wins, 1 draw), having scored three goals and conceded none (CL-e790a0d8-235).
Major uncertainty
The recorded 4.000 price clears the 3.98 threshold by only 0.02 decimal points against an unbeaten defense, meaning standard exchange commissions or minor model variance would completely eliminate the 4.09% edge.
Market context
The recorded best global price is 4.000 on Smarkets, though no executable price is currently available (OE-6b2f32f6cebc3859).
Across 54 market operators, the median reference price is 3.580. Proportional 3-way de-vig yields a fair decimal price of 3.843 (26.02% fair probability, 7.35% overround).
Applying a 2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin under policy v1.0 sets the acceptable threshold at 3.98, where the 4.000 quote provides an edge of 4.09%.
Operator dispersion is elevated at 11.73%, just below the 12.00% policy ceiling, and price movement tracking is limited to a single observation of 3.950.
What the price requires
The 4.000 decimal price requires an implied win probability of 25.00%, outperforming the de-vig fair probability requirement of 26.02% (or threshold requirement of 25.13% at 3.98).
Requires that the 4.000 exchange quote reflects true pricing value against an unbeaten home side that has yet to concede a goal in three matches.
Material findings and their support8
Venue · for the caseThe match is scheduled to be played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Barcelos, Portugal.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseAcadémico de Viseu enters Round 5 winless in the Primeira Liga, sitting in 16th place with 2 points from 4 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded).Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseGil Vicente is unbeaten in their opening 3 Primeira Liga fixtures, sitting in 6th place with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 3 goals scored, and 0 goals conceded).Supported
Other · material · for the caseAcadémico de Viseu is newly promoted and competing in their first-ever season in Portugal's Primeira Liga.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseForward André Clóvis leads Académico de Viseu with two Primeira Liga goals this season and is projected to lead their attack.Supported
Line-up · for the caseAcadémico de Viseu's possible starting lineup is reported as Ewerton; Ribeiro, Correia, Michelis, Gu Costa; Kahraman, Silva, Messeguem; Guilherme, Clovis, Gohi.Supported
Line-up · for the caseGil Vicente's possible starting lineup is reported as Lucao; Esgaio, Buatu, Elimbi, Weverson; Caseres, Prioste; Joelson, Fernandez, Gil Martins; Hernandez.Supported
Other · for the casePedro Ramalho is scheduled to officiate the match as referee.
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition relies on a razor-thin margin where the recorded exchange price of 4.000 barely clears the 3.98 acceptable threshold while market dispersion sits at 11.73%, near the 12.00% policy ceiling against an unbeaten home side.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
With a median operator price of 3.580 across 54 books, the broader market consensus overwhelmingly rates Académico de Viseu as substantially less likely to win than the single 4.000 quote implies.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.000
Market reference
3.580 · 54 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.98 · edge 4.09%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
