This candidate passed every gate and was locked as GL-20260906-008. The position record is the immutable, committed statement; this page is the research and decision trail behind it.
Decision
Outcome
Published
Decided
Main reason
Every gate passed.
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
La Liga: Deportivo Alavés vs. CA Osasuna
CA Osasuna travels to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Deportivo Alavés, with both clubs entering unbeaten on seven points through three matches. An available price of 3.800 offers value against the consensus market reference of 3.400, clearing the required threshold despite notable squad absences for the visitors.
Primary case
CA Osasuna holds a strong historical La Liga head-to-head advantage with 13 wins compared to 4 for Deportivo Alavés and 5 draws (CS-d091644f-bf6).
Both teams share identical strong early season form, entering the match unbeaten with seven points from their opening three fixtures (CL-c332bb8f-6fe, CS-94acf74e-18c).
Deportivo Alavés faces personnel disruption with defender Facundo Garcés suspended (CL-4b2a142b-ba9), alongside injuries to Toni Martínez (CL-d73daccd-903) and Mikel Rodríguez (CL-5879934b-a5f).
Major uncertainty
Backing CA Osasuna away from home while suffering key personnel absences (Aimar Oroz and Jorge Herrando ruled out, Valentin Rosier questionable) alongside an elevated market dispersion of 11.76%.
Market context
The top available quote is 3.800 via Unibet, set against a median reference price of 3.400 across 49 operators.
The proportional de-vig fair decimal price is calculated at 3.586 (27.89 percent fair probability) across a 5.46 percent overround.
With policy edge and uncertainty buffers yielding a required threshold of 3.72, the offered price of 3.800 retains a 5.97 percent edge.
Market dispersion across the 49 tracked books stands at 11.76 percent, with price movement unquantified due to a single recorded observation.
What the price requires
A decimal quote of 3.800 requires a true win probability of at least 26.32 percent for CA Osasuna to break even.
CA Osasuna must overcome key away-match personnel absences to secure an outright road victory at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Material findings and their support7
Suspension · material · for the caseFacundo Garcés is suspended for Deportivo Alavés.Supported
Availability · material · for the caseAimar Oroz and Jorge Herrando are listed as out for CA Osasuna, while Valentin Rosier is listed as questionable.Supported
Injury · for the caseMikel Rodríguez is listed as unavailable for Deportivo Alavés due to a cruciate ligament tear.Supported
Availability · for the caseToni Martínez is reported out for Deportivo Alavés.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match takes place at Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.Supported
Statistic · for the caseBoth Deportivo Alavés and CA Osasuna enter the match unbeaten with seven points from their opening three La Liga fixtures.Supported
Injury · against the caseRaúl Moro is reported unavailable for CA Osasuna with a knee injury.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition backs CA Osasuna away from home, yet CA Osasuna suffers from confirmed personnel absences (Aimar Oroz and Jorge Herrando ruled out, Valentin Rosier questionable), and the price dispersion across 49 operators is 11.76%, sitting just beneath the 12.00% maximum plausibility ceiling.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The market median of 3.400 across 49 bookmakers may properly factor in Osasuna's key squad absences and road disadvantage, making 3.800 an isolated quote rather than widespread market mispricing.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.800
Market reference
3.400 · 49 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.72 · edge 5.97%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
