This candidate passed every gate and was locked as GL-20260906-003. The position record is the immutable, committed statement; this page is the research and decision trail behind it.
Decision
Outcome
Published
Decided
Main reason
Every gate passed.
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Medium
Samsunspor Away at Kocaelispor: Pricing Discrepancy vs Attacking Depletion
Samsunspor visit Kocaelispor at Yildiz Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu with market pricing showing an apparent mathematical edge at 3.550 on Betfair Exchange against a 51-operator median reference price of 3.200 (de-vigged fair price 3.411). However, Samsunspor enter the fixture facing an acute attacking crisis with five forwards sidelined, while Kocaelispor have won two consecutive league matches.
Primary case
A pricing discrepancy exists between the exchange quote of 3.550 (betfair_ex_uk) and the wider market median of 3.200 across 51 sampled sportsbooks.
The de-vigged fair price is calculated at 3.411 against an acceptable price threshold of 3.540, meaning the available 3.550 quote nominally clears threshold criteria.
Samsunspor currently sit 10th with 4 points from 3 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded) as recorded in sports data.
Major uncertainty
Backing Samsunspor to win away despite verified findings confirming five primary forwards are sidelined with injuries, while the minimal 0.010 margin over the acceptable threshold is captured on an exchange operator where standard commission negates the nominal advantage.
Market context
The current best global price is 3.550 offered by betfair_ex_uk in the UK region, clearing the acceptable hurdle of 3.540.
The market reference price is 3.200 across 51 operators, reflecting an overround of 6.59 percent and market dispersion of 10.94 percent.
Tracking records only a single price sample at 3.550 with no recorded historical movement delta, limiting visibility into market momentum.
What the price requires
Samsunspor must possess a true win probability exceeding 28.17 percent (the implied probability of the 3.550 quote) despite documented squad limitations.
The price edge must withstand execution at full face value without being erased by exchange commission fees.
The pricing divergence must represent market inefficiency rather than informed exchange participants pricing in Samsunspor's offensive injuries.
Material findings and their support8
Injury · material · for the caseSamsunspor forwards Marius Mouandilmadji, Fatih Kaya, Elayis Tavsan, Tanguy Coulibaly, and Jaures Assoumou are listed as unavailable due to muscle and thigh injuries until mid-September 2026.Supported
Injury · for the caseSamsunspor players Afonso Sousa, Yunus Cift, and Igor Drapinski have also been dealing with injuries heading into the fixture.Supported
Statistic · for the caseKocaelispor enters the match with 6 points from 3 league matches (2 wins, 1 loss), having won their last two matches against Amed SK and Konyaspor.Supported
Statistic · for the caseSamsunspor enters the match with 4 points from 3 league matches (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss), most recently suffering a 2-0 home defeat against Fenerbahce.Supported
Other · material · for the caseNewly promoted Kocaelispor completed 13 signings during the summer transfer window, including Berkan Kutlu, Matej Maglica, Makana Baku, and several loan signings.Supported
Other · material · for the caseKocaelispor host Samsunspor at Yildiz Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu in Izmit having won consecutive matches against Amed SK and Konyaspor, while Samsunspor enter off a 2-0 home loss to Fenerbahce.Supported
Injury · against the caseKocaelispor striker Bruno Petkovic is sidelined with a muscle injury expected to keep him out until mid-September 2026.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition backs Samsunspor to win away despite verified research confirming an extensive injury crisis sidelining five of their forwards, while the best available price of 3.550 clears the acceptable hurdle of 3.54 by only a single tick on an exchange operator where unmodeled commission would eliminate any perceived edge.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The higher exchange price of 3.550 at Betfair Exchange compared to the conventional market median of 3.200 likely reflects sharp exchange liquidity discounting Samsunspor's chances due to the absence of five primary attacking players.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.550
Market reference
3.200 · 51 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.54 · edge 4.08%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
