← All candidatesEngine ActivityThis scan
Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
Tommy Paul to win · Moneyline
Decision
- Outcome
- Declined after research
- Main reason
- Dispersion implausible (and 4 more)
- Decided
- Policy
- v1.1
Gates that did not pass
- EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
- PriceDispersion implausibleFailed
- FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
- UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
- Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
- Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
- EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
- PriceDispersion implausibleFailed
- Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
- FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
- UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
- Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
- DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
- PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
- Enough operators for a market reference
- Price inside the freshness limit
- Price above the de-vigged fair price
- Operators disagree on the price
- Screened
- Market
- Moneyline
- Best verified price
- 4.750
- Market reference
- 4.200 · 5 operators
- Minimum Qualifying Odds
- 4.60 · edge 6.91%
Research
Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul Match Analysis
An evaluation of the upcoming matchup incorporating available sports data, market pricing context, and red team risk assessments.
Primary case
- Tommy Paul holds a hardcourt record of 4 wins against Top 10 opponents.
- Tommy Paul's first serve percentage stands at 74.5% with a serve rating rank of 23.
Market context
- The top available price is offered by betrivers.
- The market reference price is derived from a median calculation across several operators.
- The opening price history is currently unavailable as tracking has only a single recorded sample.
- The market displays a moderate level of price dispersion across the participating operators.
What the price requires
- The current price requires that the market accurately prices player capabilities and conditions without relying on unsupported injury premises.
Major uncertainty
The core supporting claim regarding Carlos Alcaraz's wrist injury is explicitly marked as unsupported, meaning the entire thesis for value relies on unverified injury assumptions.
Material findings and their support
- Injury · against the caseCarlos Alcaraz entered the US Open serving at less than full speed due to the need to protect his wrist, which was injured earlier in the season.Unsupported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The core supporting claim regarding Carlos Alcaraz's wrist injury is explicitly marked as unsupported, meaning the entire thesis for value relies on unverified injury assumptions.
Blocking questions
- What verifiable evidence exists to support the claim that Carlos Alcaraz is serving at less than full speed due to a wrist injury?
- How can a position be locked when the movement history has only a single recorded sample and no opening price?
Why the market may simply be right
- The market reference price is derived from 5 operators, which may efficiently incorporate all available public information regarding player fitness and form.