Position IDGL-20260908-004

Published position · Football · Brazil Série A

Vitoria vs Grêmio

Grêmio to win · Match Winner

OPEN

UPCOMING

Upcoming

Today · 23:00 UTC

The live state appears at kick-off.

Grêmio to win

Locked at 3.80027.4% market fairedge +4.1%Market underdog

Virtual stake $1,000Potential virtual profit +$2,800

Match coverage

Position now

Selection: Grêmio to win
Market: Match Winner

Recorded odds: 3.800
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 3.78+

Virtual stake: $1,000
Potential virtual profit: +$2,800
Potential virtual return: $3,800
Event start: Today · 23:00 UTC

Simulated. No wager is placed.

Observed at: betfair_ex_uk · region uk
Observed: 2026-09-07 00:48 UTC
Published (locked): 2026-09-07 00:48 UTC
Canonical event start: 2026-09-07 23:00 UTC

What this status means

The available odds are still at or above the Minimum Qualifying Odds.

The recorded operator is the source at which GLINTARY observed the price. It is not a recommendation and not a guarantee that the price is available to you. View odds evidence →

Why it qualified

The case as it was frozen at lock, point by point.

Grêmio's decimal price of 3.800 on Betfair Exchange UK yields an estimated 4.14% edge against a de-vigged fair price of 3.649 (27.40% fair probability) derived from a 48-operator median of 3.400.
Vitória has generated the lowest offensive output in Série A with 24 goals scored across 25 matches, while Grêmio has recorded 27 goals in 24 matches (source CS-b06f0c41-949, CL-c2845b81-cae).
Defensive adjustments are established for Grêmio with left-back Marlon unavailable while recovering from an ankle fracture (source CL-f156cd43-5ca).

The 3.800 quote implies an unadjusted win probability of 26.32%, whereas the consensus fair price requires Grêmio to win at least 27.40% of simulated match outcomes.

Risks / what could change

The best price of 3.800 is an isolated exchange quote clearing the acceptable threshold of 3.780 by just 0.020 while 48 consensus operators center at 3.400 with 11.76% dispersion, creating high risk that exchange friction or consensus accuracy negates the theoretical edge.

The best quote of 3.800 clears the model's acceptable price threshold of 3.780 by only 0.020, presenting vulnerability to unmodeled exchange commission and execution friction.
Market dispersion is high at 11.76%, indicating substantial divergence between the isolated exchange quote and the broader consensus median of 3.400.
The market lacks price trajectory data as only a single observation snapshot was captured, leaving trend momentum unverified.
Low goal production on both sides (Vitória 24 in 25; Grêmio 27 in 24) combined with Grêmio's defensive absence reduces variance, meaning consensus books at 3.400 may already accurately price the matchup.

Position now

Selection: Grêmio to win
Market: Match Winner

Recorded odds: 3.800
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 3.78+

Virtual stake: $1,000
Potential virtual profit: +$2,800
Potential virtual return: $3,800
Event start: Today · 23:00 UTC

Simulated. No wager is placed.

Observed at: betfair_ex_uk · region uk
Observed: 2026-09-07 00:48 UTC
Published (locked): 2026-09-07 00:48 UTC
Canonical event start: 2026-09-07 23:00 UTC

What this status means

The available odds are still at or above the Minimum Qualifying Odds.

The recorded operator is the source at which GLINTARY observed the price. It is not a recommendation and not a guarantee that the price is available to you. View odds evidence →

Why it qualified

The case as it was frozen at lock, point by point.

Grêmio's decimal price of 3.800 on Betfair Exchange UK yields an estimated 4.14% edge against a de-vigged fair price of 3.649 (27.40% fair probability) derived from a 48-operator median of 3.400.

Vitória has generated the lowest offensive output in Série A with 24 goals scored across 25 matches, while Grêmio has recorded 27 goals in 24 matches (source CS-b06f0c41-949, CL-c2845b81-cae).

Defensive adjustments are established for Grêmio with left-back Marlon unavailable while recovering from an ankle fracture (source CL-f156cd43-5ca).

The 3.800 quote implies an unadjusted win probability of 26.32%, whereas the consensus fair price requires Grêmio to win at least 27.40% of simulated match outcomes.

Risks / what could change

The best quote of 3.800 clears the model's acceptable price threshold of 3.780 by only 0.020, presenting vulnerability to unmodeled exchange commission and execution friction.

Market dispersion is high at 11.76%, indicating substantial divergence between the isolated exchange quote and the broader consensus median of 3.400.

The market lacks price trajectory data as only a single observation snapshot was captured, leaving trend momentum unverified.

Low goal production on both sides (Vitória 24 in 25; Grêmio 27 in 24) combined with Grêmio's defensive absence reduces variance, meaning consensus books at 3.400 may already accurately price the matchup.

Evidence and sources

TIER 2 · TRUSTED LOCAL

Vitória vs. Gremio - Live Score - September 07, 2026 | FOX Sports ↗

BROWSE BY Databricks Estadio Manoel Barradas Vitória Gremio ## Vitória vs Gremio Estadio Manoel Barradas # Vitória vs. Gremio: Sep 7, 2026 ## MATCHUP ## ODDS ## STANDINGS Vitória | | | | --- | 8/29 | Atlético Mineiro AMG (A) | L2-1 | | 8/23 | Bahia BAH (H) | L2-0 | | 8/16 | Botafogo BOT (H) | W1-0 | | 8/9 | Flamengo RJ FLA (A) | L2-0 | | 7/29 | Palmeiras PMS (H) | L4-0 | Atlético Mine · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 2 · TRUSTED LOCAL

Brutal injury in Brazil: Marlon is left with his ankle hanging after suffering a serious fracture ↗

Marlon, left-back for Gremio, suffered a serious injury during the match against Vitoria de Guimaraes on matchday seven of the Brazilian · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 2 · TRUSTED LOCAL

Vitória vs. Grêmio (Sep 7, 2026) Live Score ↗

| São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 | | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 | | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 | | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 | | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 | | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 | | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 | | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 | | Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 | | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 2 · TRUSTED LOCAL

Botafogo vs. Grêmio (Sep 16, 2026) Live Score - ESPN ↗

| São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 | | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 | | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 | | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 | | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 | | Mirassol | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -10 | 25 | | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 | | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 | | Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 | | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Vitória vs Grêmio Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 07 Sep 2026 ↗

## Vitória vs Grêmio Lineups & Team News Avoid surprises — review the Vitória vs Grêmio team news before you bet. We’ll share both predicted and confirmed lineups for Série A along with the latest injury news. Vitória Team Page Grêmio Team Page ### Vitória Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1 ### Grêmio Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1 ### Vitória Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1 1 Lucas Arcanjo 98 Mateus Silva · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Football Lineups ↗

Whether it’s the European Championship finals or qualifying matches, there’s the opportunity to get the official starting 11s for the Euros as soon as they are announced. Finding out the latest football injury news means that the Sportsgambler.com can put together predicted Euro 2028 lineups for any nation that is competing in this tournament. We also publish confirmed football starting lineups as · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Vitória - Grêmio Live - Brazilian Série A: Football Scores & Highlights - 07/09/2026 ↗

TNT Sports is your source for the latest Brazilian Série A match updates. Get the full recap of Vitória - Grêmio, complete with stats and · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Backing another Copa do Brasil quarter-final repeat | Goal.com UK ↗

Vitoria at home to Vasco da Gama is the next best pick after the Gremio vs Internacional fixture. The away side carry a 1-0 lead, which means there’s no pressure on them to commit heavily in attack. The hosts need to take the game to their opponents if they are to secure a place in the semi-finals. However, their goalscoring record only strengthens the case for under 2.5 goals. [...] Vitoria are · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense - live score, predicted ... ↗

19 Jorge RivaldoAttacker 19RivaldoAttacker 70 RenanAttacker 70RenanAttacker 18 Kerwin VargasAttacker 18VargasAttacker Jonathan Jesus Calf injury / Mid September 2026 JesusCalf injuryMid September 2026 Bruno Rodrigues Head injury / Mid September 2026 RodriguesHead injuryMid September 2026 Luis Sinisterra Thigh injury / Late December 2026 Siniste · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

RB Bragantino vs Bahia - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats ↗

7AdemirAttacker 12 Willian JoséAttacker 12JoséAttacker 27 EveraldoAttacker 27EveraldoAttacker Agustín Sant'Anna Suspended / September 5, 2026 Sant'AnnaSuspendedSeptember 5, 2026 Eduardo Sasha Knee injury / Doubtful SashaKnee injuryDoubtful Vanderlan Knee injury / Mid September 2026 VanderlanKnee injuryMid September 2026 Davi Gomes Cruciate · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Watch Botafogo RJ vs Vitoria Serie A game LIVE: Online streams, TV channel, early teams news, start time ↗

Find out where to watch Botafogo RJ vs Vitoria live, including TV channel options, live stream details, kick-off time, team news, and form · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Botafogo RJ vs Gremio prediction and betting tips 17 September 2026 | Dailysports experts ↗

The postponement is, above all, a boost for Grêmio. Under the original schedule, the team would have had to play Botafogo and then face Bolívar in a crucial second leg the very next day. Such a scenario all but guaranteed major squad rotation or severe fatigue for the regular starters. [...] Injuries have only compounded their problems. Marlon continues to recover from a broken ankle, João Pedro h · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Report: Fiorentina has a deal in place for Viery ↗

The Brazilian defender looks like the first official signing of the Paratici era. by The Tito. Jun 26, 2026, 2:39 PM PDT. · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Scouting Report: Viery — From Grêmio To Sunderland This Summer? ↗

Matthew Donne looks at whether the young Brazilian would be a good addition to Sunderland's backline! by MattDonne_. Jun 13, 2026, 10:00 PM · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Mirassol vs Vitória - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats ↗

Edson Carioca Thigh injury / Early September 2026 CariocaThigh injuryEarly September 2026 José Aldo Thigh injury / Late October 2026 AldoThigh injuryLate October 2026 Negueba Injured / Out for season NeguebaInjuredOut for season Caíque Knee injury / Early September 2026 CaíqueKnee injuryEarly September 2026 Gabriel Baralhas Physical discomfort / Doubtful · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Grêmio vs Palmeiras - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats ↗

CabralMuscle injuryBack in training Dodi Knee injury / Mid September 2026 DodiKnee injuryMid September 2026 Ramón Sosa Thigh injury / Mid September 2026 SosaThigh injuryMid September 2026 Paulinho Muscle injury / Early October 2026 PaulinhoMuscle injuryEarly October 2026 Jefté Meniscus injury / Mid December 2026 JeftéMeniscus injuryMid December 2026 ## Abou · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Neymar's injury hell continues as Santos president confirms Brazil star will be out for longer than expected amid fears over 2026 World Cup hopes | Goal.com US ↗

## Translated by # Neymar's injury hell continues as Santos president confirms Brazil star will be out for longer than expected amid fears over 2026 World Cup hopes Neymar Santos FC Brazil Serie A World Cup Qualification CONMEBOL [...] Ancelotti recently said of the Brazilian: "I want him to be really well to be able to play. He can participate in the World Cup if he is physically well. From · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Juventude vs Santos: where to watch live, broadcast, line-up, kick-off time and more from the 2025 Brasileirão | Goal.com US ↗

### Juventude Caíque is suspended after receiving his third yellow card, while Lucas Fernandes, Peixoto, Wilker Ángel and Gilberto are injured. ### Santos Escobar is injured. ## When is it? Date: Wednesday, 3 December 2025 Time: 18:30 EST Venue: Alfredo Jaconi Stadium - Caxias do Sul, RS ### Recent history ## JUV -Form Juventude 1 - 1 Bahia D Sao Paulo 2 - 1 · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Vitoria 4 - 0 Athletico Paranaense (08/06) - Match Report ↗

Vitoria Brasileirão Série A 17:00 Athletico Paranaense 24/10/2026Athletico Paranaense Copa do Brasil 2 - 0 Vitoria [1 - 1.68 X - 3.52 2 - 5.78 04/08/2026]( Paranaense Brasileirão Série A 3 - 1 Vitoria [1 - 1.64 X - 3.67 2 - 5.70 26/04/2026]( Paranaense Brasileirão Série A 1 - 2 Vitoria [1 - 1.83 X - 3.29 2 - 4.98 02/11/2024]( Brasileirão Série A 0 - 1 Athletico Paranaense [1 - 2.24 X - 3.19 2 - 3. · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Where to watch and live stream Campeonato Brasileirão Serie A soccer August 2026 | Goal.com US ↗

## Upcoming Campeonato Brasileirão Serie A TV schedule Sao Paulo vs Coritiba Fanatiz Chapecoense AF vs Bahia Fanatiz Vasco da Gama vs Santos FC Fanatiz Atletico MG vs Gremio Fanatiz Vitoria vs Botafogo RJ Fanatiz Mirassol vs Flamengo Fanatiz Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Fanatiz Internacional vs Remo Fanatiz logoStream Campeonato Brasileirão soccer live on FanatizSign up today! READ MO · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Marcos Rocha ↗

Marcos Rocha, 37, from Brazil ➤ Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense, since 2025 ➤ Right-Back ➤ Market value: €200k ➤ * Dec 11, · retrieved 2026-09-06 22:56 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Grêmio faces several squad absences with Marlon recovering from an ankle fracture, João Pedro nursing a thigh injury, Francis Amuzu dealing with concussion symptoms, and Dodi and Jovane Cabral also si ↗

Grêmio's roster situation has been impacted by injuries to Marlon (broken ankle), João Pedro (thigh injury), and Francis Amuzu (concussion symptoms), alongside the suspension of Lionel Pérez. · retrieved 2026-09-07 00:45 UTC

TIER 3 · SECONDARY

Vitória is dealing with an extensive list of injured players ahead of September 2026 matches, including Nathan Mendes, Caíque, Gabriel Baralhas, Edson Carioca, Camutanga, Riccieli, Edu, Dudu, and Rúbe ↗

Injury reports list multiple Vitória players as unavailable or doubtful, including Nathan Mendes (cruciate ligament), Dudu (back), Edu (Achilles tendon), Camutanga (broken toe), Riccieli (calf), Edson Carioca (thigh), Caíque (knee), Anderson Pato, Rúben Ismael, and Gabriel Baralhas. · retrieved 2026-09-07 00:45 UTC

TIER 2 · TRUSTED LOCAL

Vitória holds the lowest scoring record in Série A with 24 goals across 25 matches, while Grêmio ranks in the bottom seven attacking teams with 27 goals in 24 games. ↗

Vitória is the lowest-scoring team in Brazil's Série A having scored 24 goals in 25 matches, with 75% of home games seeing under 2.5 goals. Grêmio has recorded 27 goals in 24 league matches, placing them among the lowest-scoring seven teams in the competition. · retrieved 2026-09-07 00:45 UTC

Odds evidence records · 1

Provider is the data feed that delivered the observation; operator is the source at which the odds were shown. The recorded operator is the source at which GLINTARY observed the price. It is not a recommendation and not a guarantee that the price is available to you.

Evidence ID: OE-a1621b71fd949ab6
Provider: the-odds-api
Operator: betfair_ex_uk
Region: uk
Odds: 3.800
Observed: 2026-09-07 00:48 UTC
Evidence hash: d40629c4d933b0316d79ce3fc9d4d45aa8e4043b72c877bba380ce935ca24c98

Vitoria vs Grêmio

Position now

Why it qualified

Risks / what could change

Vitoria vs Grêmio

Position now

Why it qualified

Risks / what could change

What the price means

Evidence and sources

Record and verification

Changes and settlement