Position IDGL-20260908-002

Published position · Tennis · WTA US Open

Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova

Linda Noskova to win · Moneyline

OPEN

UPCOMING

Upcoming

Tue, 8 Sep · 15:30 UTC

The live state appears at kick-off.

Linda Noskova to win

Locked at 3.05034.1% market fairedge +4.1%Market underdog

Virtual stake $1,000Potential virtual profit +$2,050

Position now

Selection: Linda Noskova to win
Market: Moneyline

Recorded odds: 3.050
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 3.04+

Virtual stake: $1,000
Potential virtual profit: +$2,050
Potential virtual return: $3,050
Event start: Tue, 8 Sep · 15:30 UTC

Observed at: matchbook · region uk
Observed: 2026-09-06 20:12 UTC
Published (locked): 2026-09-06 20:12 UTC
Canonical event start: 2026-09-08 15:30 UTC

What this status means

The available odds are still at or above the Minimum Qualifying Odds.

The recorded operator is the source at which GLINTARY observed the price. It is not a recommendation and not a guarantee that the price is available to you. View odds evidence →

Why it qualified

The case as it was frozen at lock, point by point.

No. 6 seed Linda Noskova meets No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals on outdoor hard courts at Flushing Meadows [CL-ee4a9c36-2c1, CL-5c4b1739-5cd, CL-d0a29f0d-06f].
Noskova has logged 13 wins and 8 losses on hard courts in 2026 [CS-5934a736-01a], delivering 25 aces through Round 3 [CS-ba120457-dc5].
At 3.050, the market quote clears the de-vigged fair price of 2.930 (34.13% fair probability) and exceeds the required threshold of 3.040 by a razor-thin margin before commission.

Linda Noskova to win at a rate exceeding the implied de-vigged threshold of 34.13% (decimal equivalent 2.930).

Risks / what could change

Unmodeled Betfair exchange commission erodes the effective decimal price of 3.050 to between 2.948 and 3.029, falling below the required 3.040 threshold on a single unconfirmed price observation.

The best quote of 3.050 is on an exchange (betfair_ex_uk); standard commissions of 2% to 5% reduce effective return to 2.948-3.029, completely eliminating the buffer over the 3.040 hurdle.
Noskova is 0-2 lifetime in head-to-head meetings against Sabalenka [CS-ba120457-dc5], while Sabalenka has dropped just 15 games through the first three rounds [CS-3b036399-270] and enters as two-time defending champion [CL-d0a29f0d-06f].
Price tracking consists of only one observation snapshot, providing zero evidence of quote durability or market direction.

A published position is a research view, not a claim of certainty. Every position can lose.

Position now

Selection: Linda Noskova to win
Market: Moneyline

Recorded odds: 3.050
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 3.04+

Virtual stake: $1,000
Potential virtual profit: +$2,050
Potential virtual return: $3,050
Event start: Tue, 8 Sep · 15:30 UTC

Observed at: matchbook · region uk
Observed: 2026-09-06 20:12 UTC
Published (locked): 2026-09-06 20:12 UTC
Canonical event start: 2026-09-08 15:30 UTC

What this status means

The available odds are still at or above the Minimum Qualifying Odds.

The recorded operator is the source at which GLINTARY observed the price. It is not a recommendation and not a guarantee that the price is available to you. View odds evidence →

Why it qualified

The case as it was frozen at lock, point by point.

No. 6 seed Linda Noskova meets No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals on outdoor hard courts at Flushing Meadows [CL-ee4a9c36-2c1, CL-5c4b1739-5cd, CL-d0a29f0d-06f].

Noskova has logged 13 wins and 8 losses on hard courts in 2026 [CS-5934a736-01a], delivering 25 aces through Round 3 [CS-ba120457-dc5].

At 3.050, the market quote clears the de-vigged fair price of 2.930 (34.13% fair probability) and exceeds the required threshold of 3.040 by a razor-thin margin before commission.

Linda Noskova to win at a rate exceeding the implied de-vigged threshold of 34.13% (decimal equivalent 2.930).

Risks / what could change

Unmodeled Betfair exchange commission erodes the effective decimal price of 3.050 to between 2.948 and 3.029, falling below the required 3.040 threshold on a single unconfirmed price observation.

The best quote of 3.050 is on an exchange (betfair_ex_uk); standard commissions of 2% to 5% reduce effective return to 2.948-3.029, completely eliminating the buffer over the 3.040 hurdle.

Noskova is 0-2 lifetime in head-to-head meetings against Sabalenka [CS-ba120457-dc5], while Sabalenka has dropped just 15 games through the first three rounds [CS-3b036399-270] and enters as two-time defending champion [CL-d0a29f0d-06f].

Price tracking consists of only one observation snapshot, providing zero evidence of quote durability or market direction.

A published position is a research view, not a claim of certainty. Every position can lose.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova

Position now

Why it qualified

Risks / what could change

Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova

Position now

Why it qualified

Risks / what could change

What the price means

Evidence and sources

Record and verification

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