ENGINE ACTIVITY · RESEARCH CANDIDATE

Mayton Perea vs Zevan Hunt

Zevan Hunt to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position

MMA · MMA · Starts 2026-09-15 23:00 UTC

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Decided: Sep 14 · 10:20 UTC
Main reason: Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sources

Research

Evidence grade UNGRADEDAdversarial review · Medium

Mayton Perea vs. Zevan Hunt: Market Pricing and Fundamental Assessment

Evaluation of the Mayton Perea vs. Zevan Hunt MMA fixture reveals an executable best price of 2.040 against a consensus fair reference of 1.960, but the dossier contains zero supporting claims, sports metrics, or confirmed personnel.

Primary case

Market odds present an apparent discrepancy, with Pinnacle offering 2.040 against a market reference median of 1.855 across six books and a consensus fair price of 1.960.

However, there are no verified claims, local sources, or sport metrics recorded in the dossier to establish a fundamental edge for either competitor.

Major uncertainty

Fighter personnel is not confirmed for this MMA matchup, and there are zero material claims or research sources supporting the selection.

Market context

The best global price is 2.040 via Pinnacle, with BetOnline quoting 2.030, while no executable order is recorded.
The market reference price is 1.855 based on six operators, yielding a proportional de-vig fair price of 1.981 and a consensus fair price of 1.960.
Cross-operator price dispersion is 9.97 percent, with movement undetermined due to a single observation sample and absent opening prices.

What the price requires

The position requires an assessed true win probability exceeding 49.02 percent (implied by decimal odds of 2.040) to demonstrate positive expected value.
It requires that the market consensus median of 1.855 is understating fair value without relying on fundamental fighter data, which is currently unrecorded.

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

Fighter personnel is not confirmed for this MMA matchup, and there are zero material claims or research sources supporting the selection.

Blocking questions and why the market may be right

Why the market may simply be right

Consensus pricing across six independent operators may accurately reflect unquantified matchup dynamics in the absence of verified fundamental reporting.

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

Enough operators for a market reference

Price inside the freshness limit

Price above the de-vigged fair price

Operators disagree on the price

Market

Moneyline

Best verified price

2.040

Market reference

1.855 · 6 operators

Minimum Qualifying Odds

2.03 · edge 3.59%