GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
What has to change
Re-enters if the best verified price reaches undefined (last seen undefined).
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price source
Price attributable to an identified source (global reference only)
Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
Al-Nassr vs. Abha Club: Over 3.5 Match Goals Research Synthesis
Al-Nassr host 17th-placed Abha Club at Al-Awwal Park positioned in 2nd place with 4 wins from 5 matches and 13 goals scored. While Abha has conceded 9 goals across their last 5 matches with 4 clearing over 2.5 goals, Al-Nassr will be without key forward Joao Felix due to suspension and winger Kingsley Coman due to an injury sustained in their previous match, creating significant uncertainty around clearing an Over 3.5 total.
Primary case
Al-Nassr sit 2nd in the league under Angelos Postecoglou with 4 wins and 12 points in 5 matches, having scored 13 goals and conceded 5.
Abha Club sit 17th under Damir Burić with 0 wins from 4 matches.
Abha have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding 9 goals and scoring 6 in that stretch.
The match will take place at Al-Nassr's home venue, Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh.
Major uncertainty
The proposition backs Over 3.50 goals despite Al-Nassr missing key attacking firepower, with Joao Felix suspended and Kingsley Coman injured, which directly suppresses goal-scoring expectancy.
Market context
The best global decimal price is recorded at 1.820 via onexbet against an acceptable price threshold of 1.820.
The market reference price is 1.660 (median of 7 operators), compared to a leave-one-out consensus fair decimal price of 1.751.
Dispersion among 7 operators stands at 9.64 percent, showing moderate bookmaker disagreement.
Market movement data is unavailable, with opening price and percentage change null across 1 recorded price sample.
What the price requires
The price of 1.820 requires Al-Nassr and Abha to generate high total goal expectancy despite Al-Nassr missing primary creators.
It requires acceptance of a borderline pricing edge where the primary power de-vig model calculates a 3.92% edge but the Shin de-vig falls below the standard hurdle at 3.49%.
Material findings and their support9
Suspension · material · for the caseAl-Nassr forward Joao Felix is suspended for the match against Abha after receiving his fourth caution of the competition against Al-Ittihad.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseAl-Nassr winger Kingsley Coman left the pitch in the 60th minute against Al-Ittihad on September 5, 2026, with an apparent injury.Supported
Injury · for the caseAl-Nassr defender Sultan Al-Ghannam is sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury expected to keep him out until mid-January 2027.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match is scheduled to be played at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh.Supported
Availability · for the caseAbdulkarim Derisi is absent from the Abha squad ahead of the match against Al-Nassr.Supported
Other · material · for the caseAl-Nassr sit in second place with four wins in five matches under manager Angelos Postecoglou, while Abha Club sit 17th with zero wins from four matches under manager Damir Burić.Supported
Other · material · for the caseJoão Félix is suspended for the fixture against Abha Club after receiving his fourth yellow card of the competition against Al-Ittihad.Supported
Other · material · for the caseKingsley Coman was forced off due to an apparent injury in the 60th minute of Al-Nassr's defeat to Al-Ittihad ahead of the Abha match.Supported
Other · material · for the case
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition backs Over 3.50 goals despite Al-Nassr missing key attacking firepower, with Joao Felix suspended and Kingsley Coman injured, which directly suppresses goal-scoring expectancy.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The median market reference price sits at 1.660 with significant overround (9.75%), meaning onexbet's 1.820 quote could simply reflect higher operator margin or a slow adjustment to offensive absences.
The Shin cross-check de-vig calculates net edge at 3.49%, suggesting the consensus market price adequately prices the true probability.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
Enough operators for a market reference
Price inside the freshness limit
Price above the de-vigged fair price
Operators disagree on the price
Market
Total
Best verified price
1.820
Market reference
1.660 · 7 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
1.82 · edge 3.92%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
