Calgary Stampeders vs Edmonton Elks · Edmonton Elks to win · candidate | GLINTARY

ENGINE ACTIVITY · RESEARCH CANDIDATE

Calgary Stampeders vs Edmonton Elks

Edmonton Elks to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position

American Football · CFL · Starts 2026-09-07 22:00 UTC

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Decided: Sep 6 · 01:40 UTC
Main reason: A blocking open question remains (and 1 more)

Gates that did not pass

UncertaintyA blocking open question remainsFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyA blocking open question remainsFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Blocking

CFL Week 14: Edmonton Elks vs Calgary Stampeders Labour Day Classic

Edmonton enters Week 14 leading the CFL West division at 8-3 coming off a bye week and regaining offensive lineman Coulter Woodmansey, facing a Calgary defence that has conceded 30 or more points in all but two games this season. However, Calgary quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. is trending toward a return from a head injury, and market pricing shows wide dispersion around an isolated outlier quote.

Primary case

Edmonton leads the CFL West with an 8-3 record and enters on a two-game winning streak following a bye week rest advantage.
Calgary's defence has struggled consistently, conceding at least 30 points in all but two games this season.
Offensive lineman Coulter Woodmansey returns to Edmonton's lineup following a knee injury, bolstering their offensive front.
Calgary quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. has returned to full practice following a head injury and appears on track to play, but has not yet received official game-day roster confirmation.

Major uncertainty

The DraftKings 2.050 price represents an isolated single-snapshot outlier far above the 30-operator median of 1.850 with 10.81% dispersion, while Calgary quarterback Vernon Adams Jr.'s active playing status remains unconfirmed.

Market context

DraftKings offered an outlier decimal price of 2.050 in the US market on September 6, 2026.
The reference market median across 30 operators stands at 1.850, yielding a de-vig fair price of 1.949 and a threshold price of 2.02.
Market dispersion across the 30 operators is elevated at 10.81%, with only a single recorded market snapshot and no historical trend data.

What the price requires

The DraftKings 2.050 quote requires an implied win probability below 48.8%, compared to the 30-operator median implied probability of 54.1%.
Sustained value requires DraftKings' price to reflect an actionable market inefficiency rather than a stale outlier or line error ahead of starting quarterback clarification.

Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.

Candidate IDCAND-20260908-f5ad0d7d

Scan IDRUN-20260906-cd84ee46

Event IDEV-20260907-4bae52128c53

Scan summary: Open the scan
Policy version: v1.2
Board day: 2026-09-08
Screened: not retained
Research completed: 2026-09-06 01:37 UTC
Decided: 2026-09-06 01:40 UTC

Decision

Research

CFL Week 14: Edmonton Elks vs Calgary Stampeders Labour Day Classic

Adversarial review

Why it entered research