GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
What has to change
Re-enters if the best verified price reaches 4.45 (last seen 4.400).
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price source
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal: Draw researched 7 September 2026, Watchlist | GLINTARY
Price attributable to an identified source (global reference only)
Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal: Draw Value Assessment
Borussia Dortmund host Villarreal at Signal Iduna Park in their Champions League group opener dealing with multiple key absences, while the market offers a draw at 4.400 via Betfair Exchange against a de-vigged fair price of 4.238.
Primary case
Borussia Dortmund are missing key personnel including Giannis Konstantelias (knee injury), Nico Schlotterbeck (ankle), Emre Can (cruciate ligament), and Samuele Inacio (suspended).
Dortmund report six total players injured or suspended heading into the match.
Villarreal have recorded two draws and one loss across three league matches this season, conceding 1.67 goals per game.
Major uncertainty
The position clears the minimum acceptable price by just 0.01 at an exchange venue where unmodeled commissions of 2% to 5% would eliminate the 3.82% theoretical edge.
Market context
The best global price is 4.400 from Betfair Exchange UK recorded at 2026-09-07T03:08:45.311Z.
The market reference price across 51 operators is 4.000, yielding an overround-adjusted fair price of 4.238 (23.60% fair probability against a 5.95% overround).
With a 2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin, the minimum acceptable price is 4.39, which 4.400 clears by 0.01.
Historical price trajectory is unknown due to only 1 movement sample being captured. Market dispersion is 10.00% across 51 operators.
What the price requires
The price of 4.400 implies a raw break-even probability of 22.73%, compared to the de-vigged market consensus of 23.60%.
Value requires that Dortmund squad absences balance their historical home advantage at Signal Iduna Park without unrecorded exchange fees eroding the edge.
Material findings and their support10
Venue · for the caseThe match will take place at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, Germany.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseBorussia Dortmund attacker Giannis Konstantelias is ruled out with a long-term cruciate ligament knee injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseBorussia Dortmund defender Nico Schlotterbeck is unavailable due to an ankle injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseBorussia Dortmund midfielder Emre Can remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury.Supported
Injury · for the caseBorussia Dortmund defender Ramy Bensebaini is managing a rib injury.Supported
Injury · for the caseVillarreal defender Juan Foyth has been dealing with a muscle injury concern.Supported
Rest · for the caseVillarreal played a domestic fixture against Deportivo La Coruna on September 5, 2026, three days prior to this match.Supported
Other · material · for the caseBorussia Dortmund will be without Giannis Konstantelias, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Emre Can due to injuries, while Samuele Inacio is suspended.Supported
Other · material · for the caseBorussia Dortmund confirmed a severe knee injury to new signing Giannis Konstantelias that will keep him sidelined for months.Supported
Other · material · for the caseNiko Kovac leads Borussia Dortmund while Inigo Perez manages Villarreal entering their Champions League opening group match at Signal Iduna Park.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The best global price of 4.400 is quoted by Betfair Exchange, clearing the minimum acceptable threshold of 4.39 by a negligible margin (0.01). Betfair Exchange prices carry customer commissions that are unrecorded by the system, which would in practice eliminate the 3.82% theoretical edge.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
51 bookmakers have priced the draw around a median of 4.000 (implied de-vigged fair price 4.238), reflecting Dortmund's strong home advantage at Signal Iduna Park regardless of squad absences.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.400
Market reference
4.050 · 50 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.45 · edge 2.56%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
