GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Personnel information older than the limit
What has to change
Re-enters once confirmed personnel information is published.
Gates that did not pass
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
2026 US Open: Outlier Pricing on Emma Navarro vs Market Consensus
Sportsbet is offering an isolated market-leading price of 4.900 for Emma Navarro at the 2026 US Open, clearing the 4.84 threshold against an 18-operator median of 4.400. While Navarro has shown strong recent form with an upset over seventh seed Karolina Muchova, the price disparity is constrained by high dispersion and a direct straight-sets head-to-head loss to Jessica Pegula in August 2026.
Primary case
Emma Navarro (seeded 26th) reached the fourth round of the 2026 US Open after defeating Lois Boisson, Caty McNally, and seventh seed Karolina Muchova.
Navarro has rebounded effectively after missing two months of the 2026 season due to health issues, which had previously caused her ranking to fall to No. 39.
The available top price of 4.900 provides positive expected value against the 18-operator fair de-vigged decimal price of 4.667 (implied fair win probability of 21.43 percent).
Major uncertainty
Sportsbet's 4.900 quote sits at an 11.36 percent dispersion above the 18-operator median, risking being an uncorroborated outlier against heavy consensus reflecting Pegula's dominant 32-7 hard-court season and straight-sets head-to-head victory.
Market context
The best global market price is 4.900 offered by Sportsbet in Australia as of September 7, 2026.
The reference price stands at 4.400 across 18 operators, with a de-vigged fair price of 4.667 after a 6.06 percent overround.
Factoring in a 2.00 percent edge buffer and 1.50 percent uncertainty margin under policy v1.0, the acceptable entry threshold is 4.84, which 4.900 satisfies.
Market price dispersion is elevated at 11.36 percent across the 18 sampled books, approaching the policy maximum threshold of 12.00 percent.
What the price requires
The price of 4.900 requires Navarro to maintain a true win probability exceeding 20.41 percent (or 21.43 percent under fair de-vigged conditions).
It assumes Sportsbet's quote reflects durable value rather than an erroneous or lagging standalone quote that will revert toward the 4.400 consensus median.
It presumes Navarro's form can overcome past head-to-head deficits against top-ranked opposition on outdoor hard courts.
Material findings and their support11
Line-up · for the caseEmma Navarro is seeded 26th and Jessica Pegula is seeded 3rd in the women's singles draw at the 2026 US Open.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseJessica Pegula defeated Emma Navarro 7-5, 6-2 in the third round of the Cincinnati Open on August 17, 2026.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseAt the 2026 US Open, Jessica Pegula advanced through early rounds by defeating Sofia Kenin (6-3, 6-1) and Leylah Fernandez, while Emma Navarro advanced through wins against Lois Boisson, Caty McNally (3-6, 6-2, 6-3), and Karolina Muchova (6-3, 7-5).Supported
Line-up · material · for the caseIn the fourth round of the 2026 US Open on September 6, 2026, Jessica Pegula was scheduled against Sorana Cirstea, while Emma Navarro was scheduled to play Anna Kalinskaya.Supported
Statistic · for the caseJessica Pegula held a 48-12 win-loss record in 2026 (32-7 on hard courts) heading into the US Open fourth round, having won titles in Dubai and Charleston earlier in the year.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseEmma Navarro missed two months of competition earlier in 2026 due to health issues.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe US Open tournament is played on outdoor hard courts at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York City.Supported
Other · material · for the caseJessica Pegula defeated Emma Navarro in straight sets (7-5, 6-2) in their third-round clash at the Cincinnati Open on August 17, 2026.Supported
Other · material · for the caseEmma Navarro missed two months in early 2026 due to health issues, contributing to a ranking drop to No. 39 before rebounding at the US Open.Supported
Other · material · for the caseJessica Pegula logged 32 hard-court wins in 2026, compiling a 48-12 season record across all surfaces heading into the US Open second week.Supported
Other · material · for the caseEmma Navarro advanced to the fourth round of the 2026 US Open by upsetting seventh seed Karolina Muchova.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Sportsbet's offering of 4.900 sits at an 11.36% dispersion above the 18-operator market median (4.400), closely approaching the 12.00% maximum allowable dispersion, while recent head-to-head empirical evidence shows Jessica Pegula defeated Emma Navarro in straight sets (7-5, 6-2) on hard court less than a month prior.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The 18-operator median of 4.400 (de-vigged fair price 4.667) reflects Pegula's 32-7 hard-court record in 2026 and her recent 7-5, 6-2 victory over Navarro.
Consensus across 17 other bookmakers suggests true win probability for Navarro is lower than the implied probability of the 4.900 quote.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
4.900
Market reference
4.400 · 20 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.84 · edge 4.99%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
