GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
What has to change
Re-enters if the best verified price reaches 4.01 (last seen 4.000).
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
US Open Quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Ben Shelton Market Analysis
Ahead of their outdoor hard-court quarterfinal at Flushing Meadows, Ben Shelton is priced at a top market quote of 4.000 against Carlos Alcaraz. With a market reference price of 3.640 across 41 operators and a de-vigged fair price of 3.822, the price clears the threshold of 3.96, though Alcaraz holds a 3-0 head-to-head advantage and displayed strong form in round four.
Primary case
Operator sport888 offers a top market price of 4.000 for Ben Shelton against Carlos Alcaraz at the 2026 US Open (source: market_context).
The market consensus reference price across 41 sportsbooks sits at 3.640, yielding an overround-adjusted de-vigged fair price of 3.822 and an implied fair probability of 26.17 percent (source: market_context).
Under policy v1.0, accounting for a 2.00 percent edge buffer and a 1.50 percent uncertainty margin, the acceptable price threshold is 3.96, which the 4.000 offer clears with a calculated 4.66 percent edge (source: market_context).
Carlos Alcaraz entered the tournament returning from an extended absence since April due to a right wrist injury (source: CL-39144c9c-ed6).
Major uncertainty
Carlos Alcaraz holds an undefeated 3-0 head-to-head record against Ben Shelton and demonstrated complete form by sweeping Tommy Paul in straight sets, indicating the market's heavy favorite pricing is fundamentally sound and leaving little true edge on Shelton.
Market context
The best global price of 4.000 is available at sport888 in the UK region as of 2026-09-07T04:05:25.758Z (source: market_context).
Market dispersion across the 41 tracked operators stands at 9.89 percent, with an overall market overround of 4.99 percent (source: market_context).
Only a single price observation at 4.000 has been recorded, meaning no historical drift or price movement trajectory is available (source: market_context).
What the price requires
At 4.000, the market requires Ben Shelton's true win probability to exceed 25.00 percent to offer positive expectation.
The model threshold requires Shelton's probability to remain above the de-vigged fair probability baseline of 26.17 percent despite a 0-3 career head-to-head record against Alcaraz.
Material findings and their support5
Injury · material · for the caseCarlos Alcaraz is returning to competition at the 2026 US Open following an extended absence since April due to a right wrist injury.Supported
Availability · material · for the caseCarlos Alcaraz qualified for the 2026 US Open quarterfinals by defeating Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 in the fourth round.Supported
Line-up · for the caseBen Shelton is seeded 8th and Carlos Alcaraz is seeded 2nd in the 2026 US Open men's singles draw.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseCarlos Alcaraz holds a 3-0 head-to-head record against Ben Shelton in prior meetings.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe US Open match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled as an outdoor hard-court quarterfinal at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Carlos Alcaraz holds an undefeated 3-0 head-to-head record against Ben Shelton and demonstrated complete form by sweeping Tommy Paul in straight sets, indicating the market's heavy favorite pricing is fundamentally sound and leaving little true edge on Shelton.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
Forty-one operators consensus median is 3.640, reflecting consensus confidence in Alcaraz based on his 3-0 head-to-head record and dominant straight-sets round four performance.
The 4.000 quote at sport888 sits at the upper edge of market dispersion (9.89%), which may represent a standard outlier rather than genuine mispricing.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
4.000
Market reference
3.670 · 41 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.01 · edge 3.44%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
