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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks -1.5 · Spread
Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Baseball · NPB · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 1 more)
Gates that did not pass
FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying odds
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks -1.5 researched 7 September 2026, Declined after research | GLINTARY
Passed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Medium
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters: Run-Line Evaluation
First-place Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lead the head-to-head regular season series 15-4-1 over the third-place Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters through September 1, 2026. While the best observed market price of 2.110 clears the acceptable price threshold calculated from a 14-operator median reference price of 1.920, no executable price is currently available and starting pitching remains completely unconfirmed.
Primary case
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks held first place in the Pacific League and led the season series against the third-place Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters with 15 wins, 4 losses, and 1 draw through September 1, 2026 (CL-2eebdb26-cec, CL-c683f95d-28b).
SoftBank pitcher Yugo Maeda has compiled a 10-0 pitching record during the 2026 NPB season (CL-1c78839c-b4b, CL-e42c2a58-107).
Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters outfielder Shun Mizutani returned to action in late August 2026 following a mid-season slump, while SoftBank closer Roberto Osuna was left off the 2026 Opening Day roster (CL-10818a04-b44, CL-4aa727f2-b57).
Major uncertainty
Starting pitching personnel is unconfirmed for this NPB fixture (event start is over 18 hours away, and personnel evidence age is 613,988 seconds from source CS-374be30e-737), which is critical for a baseball run-line handicap (-1.50) where the starting pitcher is the primary pricing driver.
Market context
The market reference decimal price is 1.920 based on the median of 14 operators, corresponding to a two-way de-vigged fair price of 2.038 (49.07 percent fair probability) with a 6.14 percent overround.
The acceptable price threshold is 2.11 factoring in a 2.00 percent edge buffer and a 1.50 percent uncertainty margin, yielding an edge of 3.53 percent against the best observed price of 2.110 at onexbet in the EU region.
No executable price is currently available, operator dispersion is 9.90 percent across 14 books, and movement tracking contains only a single observation without an established opening baseline.
What the price requires
The market median price of 1.920 and fair price of 2.038 imply that covering the -1.5 handicap occurs under 50 percent of the time (49.07 percent), requiring SoftBank's historical dominance to overcome run-line variance.
Securing the required 3.53 percent edge relies on obtaining executable liquidity at or above the 2.11 threshold once executable books open.
Material findings and their support8
Statistic · material · for the caseAs of September 1, 2026, Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks held first place in the Pacific League and led the head-to-head series against the third-place Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters with 15 wins, 4 losses, and 1 draw.Supported
Availability · for the caseHokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters outfielder/batter Shun Mizutani returned to the team's lineup in late August 2026 after being removed in July due to a batting slump.Supported
Statistic · for the caseFukuoka SoftBank Hawks pitcher Yugo Maeda has recorded a 10-0 pitching record during the 2026 season.Supported
Availability · for the caseFukuoka SoftBank Hawks closer Roberto Osuna was left off the club's 2026 NPB Opening Day roster.Supported
Other · material · for the caseFukuoka SoftBank Hawks held 1st place and led Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (in 3rd place) 15-4-1 in their 2026 head-to-head season series as of September 1.Supported
Other · material · for the caseSoftBank Hawks pitcher Yugo Maeda has accumulated a 10-0 record during the 2026 season.Supported
Other · material · for the caseFighters pitcher Haruki Hosono threw a no-hitter in the 2026 NPB regular season.Supported
Venue · against the caseFukuoka SoftBank Hawks' home stadium is Mizuho PayPay Dome Fukuoka.
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Starting pitching personnel is unconfirmed for this NPB fixture (event start is over 18 hours away, and personnel evidence age is 613,988 seconds from source CS-374be30e-737), which is critical for a baseball run-line handicap (-1.50) where the starting pitcher is the primary pricing driver.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The market median price of 1.920 (fair decimal price 2.038) reflects that covering -1.5 runs against Nippon-Ham is sub-50% probability (49.07%), accounting for normal variance in run-line margins.
Books may be pricing the line cautiously in anticipation of pitching rotations.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Spread
Best verified price
2.110
Market reference
1.920 · 14 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.11 · edge 3.53%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
