Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Tennis · WTA US Open · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 1 more)
Gates that did not pass
FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Medium
US Open 2026 Round of 16: Iva Jović vs Coco Gauff
Betfair Exchange offers decimal odds of 3.350 on Iva Jović against Coco Gauff, clearing the model execution threshold of 3.33 against a fair price of 3.210. However, Jović enters following an exhaustive three-hour third-round battle, while Gauff advanced in straight sets and leads their head-to-head record 1-0.
Primary case
Iva Jović presents value at 3.350 on betfair_ex_uk (OE-2a6d763e40afef3a), exceeding the acceptable execution threshold of 3.33 and the de-vigged fair price of 3.210 (implied probability of 31.15%).
World No. 14 Jović demonstrated high competitive resilience by reaching her third Grand Slam Round of 16 in 2026, advancing through a three-set win over Alexandra Eala (CL-92b5d3f5-fdc, CS-8b65b849-ace, CS-e087c301-73b).
In their only previous meeting at the 2026 Italian Open, Jović pushed Gauff to three sets (5-7, 7-5, 6-2) and held a match point before falling (CL-ab9900fd-b49).
Major uncertainty
Disparate physical recovery demands between competitors, where Jović's performance may degrade sharply following a grueling three-hour match less than 48 hours prior compared to Gauff's routine straight-sets progression.
Market context
Current best price stands at 3.350 via betfair_ex_uk recorded at 2026-09-06T09:35:42.396Z (OE-2a6d763e40afef3a).
The median reference price across 57 operators is 3.050 with a dispersion of 9.84%.
Price monitoring history currently contains a single observation with no recorded opening price or historical trend over 29 hours before the match.
What the price requires
Execution requires Jović to win at an implied probability greater than 29.85% (at 3.350 odds), against a fair calculated rate of 31.15% and an operator median implied rate of 32.79%.
Sufficient market depth must exist to match positions at 3.350 or better rather than compressing to the median benchmark of 3.050.
Material findings and their support6
Statistic · material · for the caseCoco Gauff leads the head-to-head record against Iva Jović 1-0, having defeated her in three sets (5-7, 7-5, 6-2) at the 2026 Italian Open in Rome after saving a match point.Supported
Rest · material · for the caseIva Jović reached the US Open fourth round after a three-set match lasting over three hours against Alexandra Eala on September 5, 2026.Supported
Rest · material · for the caseCoco Gauff advanced to the fourth round of the 2026 US Open by defeating Cristina Bucșa in straight sets on September 5, 2026.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match is scheduled for the Round of 16 at the US Open in New York on an outdoor hard court.Supported
Market context · for the caseCoco Gauff is the No. 4 seed at the tournament, while Iva Jović entered the tournament ranked No. 14 in the world.Supported
Other · material · for the caseIva Jovic defeated Alexandra Eala in a dramatic three-hour match at the 2026 US OpenSupported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Required personnel is unconfirmed for this fixture over 29 hours prior to start time, capping the evidence grade at B- (non-lockable), while Jović enters following an exhaustive three-hour match compared to Gauff's routine straight-sets win.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The broad market consensus (median 3.050 across 57 operators) correctly prices Coco Gauff as a strong favorite due to her seeding, H2H record, and rest advantage.
Jović's implied de-vigged fair probability of 31.15% accurately reflects the physical toll of her third-round match against Eala.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
3.350
Market reference
3.050 · 57 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.33 · edge 4.36%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
