GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
This candidate passed every gate and was locked as GL-20260907-004. The position record is the immutable, committed statement; this page is the research and decision trail behind it.
Decision
Outcome
Published
Decided
Main reason
Every gate passed.
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · No objection
Mets at Marlins: Value on New York Facing Perez in Tong's Return
An edge of 4.08% is identified on the New York Mets at 2.220 (betonlineag) versus a devigged fair price of 2.133 (46.88% fair probability derived from a 2.040 median reference price across five operators). While New York benefits from Juan Soto's return as DH (.947 OPS, 21 HR in 2026 per CS-84f6d87c-890), starter Jonah Tong makes his first MLB start since September 2025 against Miami's Eury Pérez, who has permitted just one earned run across at least six innings in both 2026 starts against New York (CS-24803f34-adb).
Primary case
A market edge of 4.08% is available at 2.220 with betonlineag, exceeding the devigged fair reference price of 2.133 calculated across five active operators with an overround of 4.58%.
The Mets' lineup features the return of designated hitter Juan Soto, who was activated on August 29, 2026, without a rehab assignment (CL-53dfc09d-bb0, CL-2bfae412-4e6) and carries a.283 batting average,.947 OPS, and 21 home runs in 2026 (CS-84f6d87c-890).
Miami's roster is depleted by key injuries, including first baseman/outfielder Kyle Stowers on the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain (CL-daf9369d-6df), starter Max Meyer on the 15-day IL with a neck injury (CL-b16aa9bc-f2b), and reliever Pete Fairbanks on the 15-day IL (CL-d27e6192-98e).
Major uncertainty
The edge over the acceptable threshold is razor-thin (2.220 observed vs 2.21 acceptable) while Jonah Tong makes his first MLB start since September 2025 against Eury Pérez, who has allowed only one earned run across two starts against New York in 2026.
Market context
The best available decimal price of 2.220 (betonlineag) clears the policy acceptable threshold of 2.21.
The consensus reference price sits at a median of 2.040 across five sportsbooks, yielding an implied fair probability of 46.88% (2.133 fair price).
Operator price dispersion is moderate at 8.82% across five books, but market line movement cannot be tracked due to a single observation sample with no recorded opening line.
What the price requires
The 2.220 offer requires New York to win at a rate exceeding 45.05% to break even, compared to the devigged market estimate of 46.88%.
The position requires Jonah Tong to provide competitive innings despite not having made a major league start since September 2025 (CL-80c98bc5-402).
The New York offense must overcome Miami starter Eury Pérez, who held the Mets to one earned run over at least six innings in each of their prior two matchups in 2026 (CL-80c98bc5-402, CS-24803f34-adb).
Material findings and their support11
Starting pitcher · material · for the caseJonah Tong is scheduled to start for the New York Mets against the Miami Marlins on September 7, 2026.Supported
Starting pitcher · material · for the caseEury Pérez is slated to start for the Miami Marlins against the New York Mets.Supported
Availability · material · for the caseThe New York Mets activated outfielder/DH Juan Soto from the injured list on August 29, 2026.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseNew York Mets infielder Mark Vientos is on the 10-day injured list with a right hand fracture.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseNew York Mets designated hitter Jorge Polanco is on the 10-day injured list with left ankle bursitis.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseMiami Marlins first baseman/outfielder Kyle Stowers was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseMiami Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer is on the 15-day injured list with a neck injury.Supported
Injury · for the caseMiami Marlins reliever Pete Fairbanks is on the 15-day injured list due to right median nerve irritation.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The edge over the acceptable threshold is razor-thin (2.220 observed vs 2.21 acceptable), while the Mets are sending Jonah Tong for his first MLB start since September 2025 against Eury Perez, who has conceded only one earned run across two starts against New York in 2026.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The market consensus price (median 2.040, de-vigged fair 2.133) heavily favors Miami due to Eury Perez's proven form against New York and Tong's unproven status after a year without an MLB start, meaning betonlineag's quote of 2.220 may simply be an accurate reflection of high Mets risk rather than mispricing.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
2.200
Market reference
2.000 · 18 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.19 · edge 4.22%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
The three-game series opener between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins is scheduled for Monday, September 7, 2026, at 1:10 p.m. ET in Miami.
Supported
Other · material · for the caseJonah Tong is scheduled to make his first MLB start since September 2025 for the Mets against the Marlins on September 7, 2026, facing Eury Pérez, who allowed one earned run in at least six innings in each of two starts against New York in 2026.Supported
Other · material · for the caseJuan Soto was activated from the injured list by the New York Mets without a rehab assignment to serve as designated hitter.Supported
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: New York Mets to win researched 6 September 2026, Published | GLINTARY
