GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Ekstraklasa - Poland · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Contract not equivalent (and 4 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceContract not equivalentFailed
Price sourceNo price, therefore no sourceFailed
FreshnessThe age of the recorded price could not be determinedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock: Under 2.5 total goals researched 7 September 2026, Declined after research | GLINTARY
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceContract not equivalentFailed
Price sourceNo price, therefore no sourceFailed
FreshnessThe age of the recorded price could not be determinedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Medium
Ekstraklasa: Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock Total Goals Assessment
Matchbook offers 2.200 on the totals market for Pogoń Szczecin versus Wisła Płock, against a 16-operator market median of 1.965 and a de-vigged fair price of 2.123. While Pogoń Szczecin has maintained tight defensive numbers (4 goals conceded in 5 league matches, 50% under 2.5 goals), Wisła Płock exhibits significant volatility, having conceded 10 goals in 5 fixtures with matches averaging 3.00 goals.
Primary case
Pogoń Szczecin has exhibited low-scoring form across the opening five rounds of the Ekstraklasa, scoring 7 goals and conceding 4 (CL-ed554c14-393, CL-cbd0db9d-57e).
Over their last 6 fixtures, Pogoń Szczecin games have averaged 2.33 total goals with a 50% rate of matches ending under 2.5 goals, averaging 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded (CL-78aae8a5-a91, CS-154ba172-7ac).
Offensive contributions remain modest across both squads, with top scorers tallying only one goal each this campaign (CL-5dc4ca8e-284, CL-47802caa-b1f).
Major uncertainty
Wisła Płock's defense has conceded 10 goals in 5 matches while their fixtures average 3.00 goals per game (67% over 2.5), directly conflicting with the premise of a low-scoring match.
Market context
The best market price is 2.200 via Matchbook in the UK region as of 14:42:42 UTC on 7 September 2026.
The consensus median across 16 tracked operators stands at 1.965, resulting in a two-way de-vigged fair price of 2.123 (47.11% fair probability) against an 8.03% market overround.
Dispersion across books is wide at 11.96%, nearing the plausibility upper boundary of 12.00%, while line movement history is unavailable due to a single price snapshot.
What the price requires
At 2.200, the position requires a win probability exceeding 45.45% to break even, against an estimated fair market probability of 47.11%.
The thesis demands that Wisła Płock's high conceding rate (2.00 goals per game conceded) normalizes downwards against Pogoń Szczecin.
Material findings and their support6
Statistic · material · for the caseIn the Ekstraklasa standings heading into round 7, Pogoń Szczecin has scored 7 goals and conceded 4 across 5 matches (7:4 goal difference), while Wisła Płock has scored 3 goals and conceded 10 across 5 matches (3:10 goal difference).Supported
Statistic · for the casePogoń Szczecin's league top scorers include Attila Szalai (1), Darko Churlinov (1), and Kellyn Acosta (1), while Wisła Płock's top scorers are Marcin Flis (1), Said Hamulic (1), and Zan Rogelj (1).Supported
Other · material · for the caseAcross recent matches leading into this fixture, Pogoń Szczecin averaged 2.33 total goals per game with 50% under 2.5 goals (1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded), while Wisła Płock averaged 3.00 total goals per game with 33% under 2.5 goals (1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded).Supported
Other · material · for the caseThrough five league matches in the Ekstraklasa standings, Pogoń Szczecin has scored 7 goals and conceded 4 (8 points, 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), whereas Wisła Płock has scored 3 goals and conceded 10 (4 points, 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses).Supported
Other · material · for the caseIndividual goal contributions this season list Attila Szalai (1), Darko Churlinov (1), and Kellyn Acosta (1) as scorers for Pogoń Szczecin, and Marcin Flis (1), Said Hamulic (1), and Zan Rogelj (1) as scorers for Wisła Płock.Supported
Venue · against the caseThe match is scheduled to be played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin, Poland.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Under 2.5 goals is directly contradicted by Wisła Płock's early season profile, where matches average 3.00 goals with 67% finishing over 2.5 goals and Wisła conceding 10 goals in 5 matches, while operator dispersion is near the ceiling at 11.96% with zero Tier 1 or Tier 2 sources.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The broader market median of 1.965 and fair price of 2.123 may properly discount Wisła Płock's 3.00 goals per game average, meaning Matchbook's 2.200 offering reflects an over-exposed price rather than a sustainable mathematical edge.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
2.220
Market reference
1.980 · 16 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
—
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
