Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF

Kalmar FF to win · Match Winner

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260907-5f1a3418

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: Dispersion implausible (and 3 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 17:07 UTC
Policy: v1.2

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceNo material claim to verifyFailed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo material claim to verifyFailed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Match Winner
Best verified price: 4.700
Market reference: 4.100 · 8 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 4.53 · edge 7.40%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF: Market Outlier and Data Staleness Analysis

BetRivers offers an outlier decimal price of 4.700 on Kalmar FF against a consensus market median of 4.100 across eight operators. While clearing the policy threshold of 4.53, this pricing divergence is isolated (14.63 percent dispersion), lacks executable depth, and rests on stale squad and head-to-head evidence in an encounter where Djurgardens IF historically dominates (22 wins to 10).

Primary case

BetRivers provides a market-leading decimal quote of 4.700 in the US region (observed 2026-09-05 17:05:34 UTC, OE-0225217f9389d454), clearing the acceptable policy threshold of 4.53.
The fixture is confirmed to be hosted at Guldfågeln Arena (CL-f9f14f8f-d0e), providing Kalmar FF with home pitch conditions.
Djurgardens IF faced a potential fixture congestion element with an away match at Mjällby scheduled on September 3, 2026, four days prior to this fixture (CL-917fdb14-e4e, STALE).

Market context

The market reference decimal price is 4.100 derived from the median of eight operators, with a proportional three-way de-vigged fair price of 4.376 (22.85 percent fair probability, 6.73 percent overround).
Applying a 2.00 percent edge buffer and 1.50 percent uncertainty margin establishes a minimum acceptable decimal price of 4.53, which only the 4.700 quote clears.