GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Turkey Super League · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Too few distinct sources
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
Alanyaspor Away Value Analysis vs Caykur Rizespor
Alanyaspor are quoted at an available best price of 4.700 against Caykur Rizespor at Caykur Didi Stadyumu, clearing the required system threshold against a 40-operator market median of 4.200 and a devigged fair price of 4.493. However, Alanyaspor face the confirmed absence of midfielder Maestro due to injury amid high market dispersion of 11.90 percent.
Primary case
Best available decimal price of 4.700 offered on Smarkets exceeds the system acceptable threshold of 4.66.
The de-vigged fair decimal price across 40 operators stands at 4.493, implying a fair win probability of 22.26 percent against a 6.98 percent overround.
Both clubs integrated extensive roster additions in the transfer window ending September 4, 2026, with Caykur Rizespor signing 10 players and Alanyaspor signing 8 players (source CL-d9be47e2-0df).
Major uncertainty
Alanyaspor are missing key midfielder Maestro with a muscle injury while the available 4.700 price sits at an elevated 11.90 percent market dispersion with no historical movement verification.
Market context
Current best global price of 4.700 observed on Smarkets in the UK region at 2026-09-06 18:52:42 UTC.
Market reference median price is 4.200 across 40 tracked operators.
Market price dispersion is elevated at 11.90 percent, remaining just inside the 12.00 percent ceiling.
Only a single price sample is available with no opening price, preventing historical trajectory analysis.
What the price requires
An actual Alanyaspor win probability exceeding 21.28 percent to yield positive expected value against the 4.700 quote.
Alanyaspor successfully covering the absence of starting midfielder Maestro in an away fixture at Caykur Didi Stadyumu.
Material findings and their support5
Injury · material · for the caseAlanyaspor midfielder Maestro is sidelined with a muscle injury and confirmed absent for the match against Caykur Rizespor.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match is scheduled to take place at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.Supported
Line-up · for the caseAlanyaspor are projected to start in a 3-4-3 formation with Victor in goal, a back three of Aliti, Lima, and Aksoy, wing-backs Hadergjonaj and Ruan, Makouta and Gezek in central midfield, and an attack featuring Kaya, Usluoglu, and Hwang Ui-Jo.Supported
Line-up · for the caseCaykur Rizespor are projected to start with Fofana in goal, a backline of Pala, Sagnan, Mocsi, and Ariss, Antalyali and Laci in midfield, and Kutucu, Olawoyin, and Bulut supporting striker Sowe.Supported
Other · material · for the caseÇaykur Rizespor registered 10 new players and Alanyaspor signed 8 new players during the 2026-27 summer transfer window closing on September 4, 2026.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition backs Alanyaspor away, but the sole material squad update confirms their midfielder Maestro is sidelined with a muscle injury, while the 4.700 price comes from an exchange at 11.90% dispersion near the plausibility boundary.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
With 40 bookmakers clustering around a median of 4.200, the consensus pricing may accurately reflect Çaykur Rizespor's home advantage and Alanyaspor's personnel absence.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.700
Market reference
4.200 · 40 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.66 · edge 4.61%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
