GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
What has to change
Re-enters if the best verified price reaches 3.42 (last seen 3.400).
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price source
Price attributable to an identified source (global reference only)
Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
Elche vs Real Sociedad: Rest Advantage and Roster Absences Against Outlier Market Price
Elche enter this fixture at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero holding a significant rest advantage of 10 days compared to Real Sociedad's quick turnaround, while the visitors face potential absences including reported suspensions to Igor Zubeldia and Ander Barrenetxea. However, an available top price of 3.400 at Matchbook matches the required entry threshold with zero margin against a market median of 3.100.
Primary case
Elche have enjoyed 10 days of rest since their last match on 28 August 2026, whereas Real Sociedad played on 3 September 2026, creating a stark physical preparation differential (CL-4a08cb4e-81c).
Real Sociedad are missing Pablo Marín due to a muscle injury and Álvaro Odriozola with a cruciate ligament injury (CL-7d34b351-ec7, CL-4d9cd1c2-9ec).
Key Real Sociedad starters Igor Zubeldia and Ander Barrenetxea are reported to be serving suspensions for this match (CL-9209c95f-ad9).
Major uncertainty
The reported suspensions of key Real Sociedad players Igor Zubeldia and Ander Barrenetxea rely on a single unverified Tier 3 social media report (CS-c0b97424-f44), while Elche's primary attacker Fer Niño carries physical discomfort.
Market context
The best global price is 3.400 at Matchbook in the UK region, which directly matches the acceptable price threshold with zero margin.
The consensus reference price is 3.100 across 49 bookmakers, yielding a proportional three-way de-vigged fair price of 3.282.
Market dispersion across 49 operators is 9.68%, with no recorded historical price trajectory due to a single observation sample.
What the price requires
At 3.400, the selection requires an implied win probability exceeding 29.41% to generate positive expectation, compared to a de-vigged market fair implied probability of 30.47%.
The position requires Real Sociedad's lineup disruptions and schedule compression to actively impair their performance, overcoming Elche's historical 0-1-4 record across their last 5 head-to-head fixtures (CS-71de84f5-d16).
Material findings and their support8
Venue · for the caseThe match is scheduled to be played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.Supported
Rest · material · for the caseElche have had 10 days of rest since their last match on 28 August 2026 against Racing Santander, whereas Real Sociedad last played on 3 September 2026 against Celta de Vigo.Supported
Injury · for the caseReal Sociedad midfielder Pablo Marín is sidelined due to a muscle injury.Supported
Injury · for the caseReal Sociedad defender Álvaro Odriozola is unavailable due to a cruciate ligament injury.Supported
Suspension · material · for the caseReal Sociedad players Igor Zubeldia and Ander Barrenetxea are reported to be serving suspensions for this fixture.Supported
Injury · for the caseElche's Yago Santiago is out due to a knee injury with an expected return in early September 2026.Supported
Injury · for the caseElche forward Adam Boayar is dealing with a muscle injury.Supported
Availability · material · for the caseElche forward Fer Niño is listed with physical discomfort ahead of the match.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The best recorded price of 3.400 sits directly on the boundary of acceptability (3.40) with zero excess margin, while the material claim of Real Sociedad suspensions relies on a single Tier 3 Twitter-derived report.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The market median of 3.100 across 49 operators yields a de-vigged fair price of 3.282, indicating the 3.400 price is an isolated high quote in an otherwise lower consensus market.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.400
Market reference
3.120 · 49 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.42 · edge 3.12%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
