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ENGINE ACTIVITY · RESEARCH CANDIDATE
Angers to win · Match Winner
Gates that did not pass
An apparent 4.04% edge exists on Smarkets offering 4.200 against a 61-operator market reference of 3.800 and de-vigged fair price of 4.037. However, the thesis is flagged with blocking concerns due to an isolated single-sample quote, lack of exchange liquidity depth, net returns likely falling below the 4.18 threshold after commission, and provisional lineup changes regarding Rennes goalkeeper Brice Samba.
Primary case
Major uncertainty
The edge rests entirely on a single unverified exchange quote of 4.200 at Smarkets against a 61-operator median of 3.800, with no price history, unconfirmed starting personnel, and standard exchange commissions likely dropping the net return below the acceptable threshold of 4.18.
CAND-20260906-fc187c5fRUN-20260906-47eaaa71EV-20260906-266126336b1fThe strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The edge rests entirely on a single unverified exchange quote of 4.200 at Smarkets against a 61-operator median of 3.800, with no price history, unconfirmed starting personnel, and standard exchange commissions likely dropping the net return below the acceptable threshold of 4.18.
Blocking questions
Why the market may simply be right
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.