This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Personnel information older than the limit
What has to change
Re-enters once confirmed personnel information is published.
Gates that did not pass
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
US Open 2026: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Fourth Round Handicap Value
Carlos Alcaraz faces Tommy Paul in the fourth round of the 2026 US Open at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Alcaraz holds a 6-2 head-to-head advantage, having dropped only one set through three rounds, while Paul has been pushed to 13 sets. A market discrepancy at betonlineag offers 2.300 against a market reference fair price of 2.207, clearing the model's acceptable price threshold of 2.290.
Primary case
Carlos Alcaraz leads Tommy Paul 6-2 in their career head-to-head series, including Grand Slam victories at the 2025 French Open and 2026 Australian Open (CL-77973d86-2a4).
Alcaraz enters the fourth round on a 17-match Grand Slam winning streak and a 10-match US Open winning streak, dropping just one set across his first three matches (CS-a55e976f-2c7, CS-dcb7f979-1cb, CS-869651ef-c39).
Tommy Paul has endured significant physical expenditure, contesting 13 sets through three rounds compared to Alcaraz's 10 sets (CL-df926877-4e5).
Major uncertainty
Carlos Alcaraz is returning from a four-month wrist injury layoff and must cover a steep -6.5 game handicap against an opponent who has historically challenged him, leaving a razor-thin 0.010 margin of clearance above the model's acceptable threshold at 2.300.
Market context
The best available decimal price is 2.300 offered by betonlineag, observed on September 6, 2026.
The market reference decimal price across 9 operators is 2.100, yielding a proportional de-vigged fair price of 2.207 (45.31 percent fair probability with a 5.09 percent overround).
The acceptable decimal price threshold is 2.290 incorporating an edge buffer of 2.00 percent and an uncertainty margin of 1.50 percent, leaving an estimated edge of 4.21 percent.
Market dispersion across the 9 operators stands at 9.52 percent, with historical price movement limited to a single recorded sample.
What the price requires
A winning bet at 2.300 requires Alcaraz to cover a -6.5 game handicap, demanding a net game differential of 7 or more games across a best-of-five format.
A straight-sets scoreline such as 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 yields only a +6 margin and fails to cover, requiring multi-break sets or lopsided margins against an opponent who has hit 162 winners in the tournament.
Material findings and their support5
Injury · material · for the caseCarlos Alcaraz is entering the 2026 US Open after a four-month layoff due to a wrist injury sustained earlier in the season.Supported
Venue · for the caseCarlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul are scheduled to play their fourth-round match on Sunday, September 6, 2026, at Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseCarlos Alcaraz leads Tommy Paul 6-2 in their head-to-head career series, including wins at the 2025 French Open and 2026 Australian Open.Supported
Rest · material · for the caseTommy Paul has spent 13 sets on court through the first three rounds (4 sets vs Wong, 4 sets vs Prizmic, 5 sets vs Bublik), compared to 10 sets played by Carlos Alcaraz (3 vs Safiullin, 4 vs Faria, 3 vs Wu).Supported
Other · material · for the caseTommy Paul previously acted as a 'black beast' (bête noire) against Carlos Alcaraz early in his elite career, but Alcaraz has since found the antidote to neutralize Paul's attacking game.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Carlos Alcaraz is returning from a four-month wrist injury layoff facing Tommy Paul, an opponent who has historically challenged him; covering a steep -6.5 game handicap in a best-of-five match requires extreme set dominance, and the offering operator's price of 2.300 clears the model's acceptable threshold (2.290) by a razor-thin 0.01 margin.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
A -6.5 handicap requires winning by 7 or more games (e.g. 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 is only +6 and fails). In Grand Slam tennis against a top-tier opponent, Paul taking a single set or forcing tiebreaks makes covering -6.5 mathematically very difficult.
The broader market median of 2.100 may accurately account for Alcaraz's physical durability after the wrist injury.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Spread
Best verified price
2.300
Market reference
2.100 · 9 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.29 · edge 4.21%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
