Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys

Over 2 total goals · Total

Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position

Football · Primera División - Argentina · Starts 2026-09-06 17:45 UTC

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Decided: Sep 4 · 20:45 UTC
Main reason: Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade UNGRADEDAdversarial review · Blocking

Research Position Note

This research note evaluates the current market context and red team findings based on available data.

Primary case

The current best available price is offered by bovada in the us region.

Major uncertainty

The position relies entirely on a single observation sample with no prior opening price recorded, and the sample size across operators is extremely small (3 operators total), making any estimated edge and locking decision highly speculative and indefensible.

Market context

The market reference price is established using the median of available operators.
Movement tracking shows a single observation sample with no prior opening price recorded.
The market shows a moderate level of dispersion across the sampled operators.

What the price requires

Requires consensus pricing across the available small sample to hold.

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

Blocking questions and why the market may be right

Blocking questions

How can a position be locked when there is only a single observation sample and no historical opening price to evaluate market movement?
Is a sample size of only 3 operators sufficient to establish a reliable market reference price?

Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.

Candidate IDCAND-20260906-f304f461

Scan IDRUN-20260904-df176ce6

Event IDEV-20260906-ca01e845c20f

Scan summary: Open the scan
Policy version: v1.1
Board day: 2026-09-06
Screened: not retained
Research completed: 2026-09-04 20:34 UTC
Decided: 2026-09-04 20:45 UTC

Decision

Research

Research Position Note

Adversarial review

Why it entered research