Loading this research candidate…
Loading this research candidate…
ENGINE ACTIVITY · RESEARCH CANDIDATE
Under 2.5 total goals · Total
Gates that did not pass
Frosinone host Venezia at Stadio Benito Stirpe with Venezia entering on three consecutive competitive defeats, zero league points, and critical squad absences including Andrea Adorante and Marin Šverko. While Matchbook lists Frosinone at an apparent value price of 2.240 against a 2.030 consensus median, severe market dispersion, single-sample pricing, and two-way de-vigging ambiguity on a three-way fixture raise critical execution and modeling concerns.
Primary case
Major uncertainty
The best global price of 2.240 from Matchbook is an isolated single-sample outlier standing more than 10 percent above the 25-operator median of 2.030 with high dispersion (10.34 percent) and no historical movement data, compounded by a de-vig methodology using only two outcomes for a football match without clarifying whether the draw outcome is accounted for.
CAND-20260906-ec361a4eRUN-20260906-610cf38cEV-20260906-30ecd214cc63The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The best global price of 2.240 from Matchbook is an isolated single-sample outlier standing more than 10 percent above the 25-operator median of 2.030 with high dispersion (10.34 percent) and no historical movement data, compounded by a de-vig methodology using only two outcomes for a football match without clarifying whether the draw outcome is accounted for.
Blocking questions
Why the market may simply be right
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.