Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Brazil Série A · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Blocking
Botafogo vs Palmeiras: Série A Match Analysis and Market Synthesis
Analysis of the Série A encounter between Botafogo and Palmeiras at Estádio Nilton Santos, evaluating market pricing of 3.700 against Palmeiras squad absences, Botafogo injuries, and league standing differentials.
Primary case
Palmeiras enters the fixture facing squad adjustments, including player Arthur Gabriel being suspended following STJD upholding his second yellow card suspension (CL-b7a78b9c-462, CL-c18b8fa1-9d3, CL-36e01a7f-db6).
Palmeiras is reported to be without Jefté (meniscus injury), Paulinho (muscle injury), and Ramón Sosa (thigh injury) (CL-6e3d3c2a-741).
Smarkets provides a top available price of 3.700 compared to a de-vigged fair price estimate of 3.557 and an operator median reference of 3.320.
Major uncertainty
Material claim CL-ecdbe36e-a8f regarding manager Abel Ferreira's suspension is only partially supported and unverified by authoritative sources, while Palmeiras maintains a substantial 22-point quality advantage at the top of Série A over 12th-place Botafogo.
Market context
The best global decimal price recorded is 3.700 via Smarkets (UK region), observed on September 6, 2026, while executable liquidity remains unverified.
The market reference median price is 3.320 across 61 tracked operators, against a proportional de-vigged fair price of 3.557, yielding a theoretical edge of 4.02% above the 3.69 threshold.
Market dispersion stands at 11.45% across the 61 tracked operators, with limited historical price movement data consisting of a single sample recorded at 3.600.
What the price requires
The 3.700 price requires Botafogo to win at an implied probability exceeding the fair price assessment of 3.557 (~28.1%), overcoming their 12th-place standing (30 points, 8-6-10 record) against league leaders Palmeiras (1st, 52 points, 15-7-3 record) (CL-4131525e-16b).
The proposition demands that Palmeiras squad absences materially degrade their performance sufficiently to offset Botafogo's own key injury absences, which include Jordan Barrera, Kaio Pantaleao, and Alex Telles (CL-d4ba4708-40d).
Material findings and their support8
Suspension · material · for the casePalmeiras player Arthur Gabriel is suspended for the match against Botafogo after STJD upheld his second yellow card suspension.Supported
Suspension · material · for the casePalmeiras manager Abel Ferreira is listed as suspended for the encounter.Partially supported
Injury · material · for the casePalmeiras will be without Jefté (meniscus injury), Paulinho (muscle injury), and Ramón Sosa (thigh injury).Supported
Injury · material · for the caseBotafogo's injury list includes Jordan Barrera (ankle), Kaio Pantaleao (cruciate ligament/muscle), and Alex Telles (thigh).Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match between Botafogo and Palmeiras is scheduled to be played at Estádio Nilton Santos.Supported
Statistic · for the casePalmeiras enters the match ranked 1st in Série A with 52 points from 25 games (15-7-3), while Botafogo is 12th with 30 points from 24 games (8-6-10).Supported
Other · material · for the caseBrazil's sports court STJD rejected Palmeiras' appeal, upholding left-back Arthur's suspension for the upcoming match against Botafogo.Supported
Other · material · for the casePalmeiras are preparing lineup changes against Botafogo due to the suspension of Arthur and the absence of manager Abel Ferreira.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition cannot be defensibly locked: deterministic checks report evidence_grade_lockable as false, key material claim CL-ecdbe36e-a8f regarding manager Abel Ferreira's suspension is only PARTIALLY_SUPPORTED, source CS-d9d4c8bb-19b has no publication timestamp, and the research foundation relies entirely on Tier 3 aggregator sources with zero Tier 1/2 backing.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
F-01 [UNSUPPORTED_CLAIM] Material claim CL-ecdbe36e-a8f regarding Palmeiras manager Abel Ferreira's suspension is only PARTIALLY_SUPPORTED. (refs: CL-ecdbe36e-a8f, CS-9c4a4463-1b0)
F-02 [STALE_EVIDENCE] Source CS-d9d4c8bb-19b lacks a publication timestamp, rendering claim CL-c18b8fa1-9d3 unverifiable in time. (refs: CL-c18b8fa1-9d3, CS-d9d4c8bb-19b)
Why the market may simply be right
With 61 operators tracked, the consensus median price is 3.320, reflecting Palmeiras' dominant league-leading campaign (15-7-3).
Smarkets at 3.700 sits at the upper tail of an 11.45% dispersion band, meaning the rest of the market prices Botafogo significantly shorter or Palmeiras longer without error.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.700
Market reference
3.380 · 61 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.74 · edge 2.66%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
