Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Dutch Eredivisie · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Best price too far above the market reference to be believed
Gates that did not pass
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
FC Groningen vs FC Twente: Matchday 5 Market Pricing Evaluation
FC Groningen hosts FC Twente at the Euroborg stadium with market odds showing an outlier price of 3.800 on Groningen at Matchbook against a 55-operator median of 3.400. While the theoretical model identifies a 4.31% edge above the acceptable price threshold of 3.78, squad valuation disparities, defensive absences, and high price dispersion warrant caution.
Primary case
Matchbook offers a decimal price of 3.800 for FC Groningen, clearing the policy model's acceptable price threshold of 3.78 based on a fair decimal price of 3.643 (fair probability 27.45%).
FC Groningen holds home advantage at the Euroborg stadium where they have recorded 1 win and 1 defeat this season, accumulating 6 points and 9 goals across their opening 4 league matches (CL-7eb94a60-b22, CL-bb3f38a2-f9c).
Major uncertainty
The apparent price edge relies on an isolated Matchbook exchange quote of 3.800 bordering the 12.00% dispersion cutoff, which may represent an illiquid anomaly rather than genuine value against a consensus that heavily favors higher-valued FC Twente.
Market context
The median decimal price across 55 tracked operators is 3.400, yielding a proportional de-vigged fair price of 3.643 with an overround of 7.14%.
Market dispersion across the 55 operators stands at 11.76%, sitting narrowly below the 12.00% operational cap.
The best global price of 3.800 was logged by Matchbook at 2026-09-06T09:46:31.147Z (OE-845511e7474a22d9), with best executable pricing currently unconfirmed.
What the price requires
A price of 3.800 implies an outcome probability of 26.32%, requiring FC Groningen to win at a higher frequency than indicated by the 55-operator consensus fair price of 3.643 (27.45%).
It requires overcoming significant squad value differentials (€32.85m for Groningen vs €77.35m for Twente) and historical head-to-head performance where Twente has won 45 of 98 fixtures (CL-ddd2217d-255).
Material findings and their support9
Venue · material · for the caseThe match will take place at Euroborg stadium in Groningen.Supported
Other · for the caseDanny Makkelie is designated as the referee for the match.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseFC Groningen defender Marco Rente is sidelined with an injury and expected to return around mid-September 2026.Supported
Injury · for the caseFC Twente defender Stav Lemkin is listed as injured on a day-to-day basis.Supported
Statistic · for the caseFC Groningen enters matchday 5 in 10th place in the Eredivisie with 6 points (2 wins, 2 losses, 9 goals scored, 10 conceded).Supported
Other · material · for the caseFC Groningen (squad market value €32.85m) faces FC Twente (squad market value €77.35m) on Matchday 5; across 98 historic meetings between the clubs, Twente has won 45, Groningen 23, and 30 were drawn.Supported
Other · material · for the caseFC Groningen enters the match 10th in the Eredivisie with 6 points (2 wins, 2 losses, 9 goals scored, 10 conceded, home record 1-0-1) following a 2-3 loss to Fortuna Sittard, with Danny Makkelie named as match referee.Supported
Injury · against the caseFC Groningen players Malcolm Jeng (Achilles tendon), Tyrique Mercera, and Ryan Metu are listed as injured and unavailable.Stale
Other · against the caseFC Groningen is missing Malcolm Jeng, Marco Rente, Tyrique Mercera, and Ryan Metu due to injury, whereas FC Twente has Stav Lemkin listed as injured.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The perceived value on Groningen relies entirely on an isolated Matchbook exchange quote of 3.800 against a median of 3.400 across 55 operators, with dispersion at 11.76% closely brushing the 12.00% cutoff, while squad value and historical dominance heavily favor FC Twente.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The 55-operator median price of 3.400 may correctly capture Groningen's defensive absences, squad quality disadvantage, and recent form, making 3.800 an anomaly rather than mispricing.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.850
Market reference
3.430 · 55 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.81 · edge 4.76%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
