Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Super League - China · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supported
Failed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking
Yunnan Yukun vs Liaoning Tieren: Market Pricing Evaluation and Data Integrity Review
Grosvenor offers a best global price of 4.400 for Liaoning Tieren against Yunnan Yukun, marginally above the acceptable threshold of 4.39 calculated from a 47-operator median of 3.950. However, the fundamental thesis is critically compromised: zero material claims are supported by fresh or verified evidence, with home and away records entirely unsupported and league standings data dating back more than 200 days to February 2026.
Primary case
The market offers a best decimal price of 4.400 at Grosvenor, which clears the v1.0 policy threshold of 4.39 derived from a devigged fair price of 4.237 (23.60% fair probability) against a reference median of 3.950 across 47 operators.
Liaoning Tieren forward Jeffinho provides verified offensive output with 10 goals in 22 appearances.
Nominal league standings record Liaoning Tieren with 25 points from 24 matches (7 wins, 4 draws, 13 losses) and Yunnan Yukun in 6th place with 35 points from 25 matches.
Major uncertainty
Zero material claims are supported by fresh or verified evidence: two material form claims have no sources whatsoever, and the two league standings claims rely entirely on sources published more than 200 days prior in February 2026.
Market context
Current best global decimal price is 4.400 offered by Grosvenor in the United Kingdom as of September 6, 2026, though no executable price is currently available.
The market reference median across 47 operators is 3.950; proportional de-vigging across three outcomes implies a fair decimal price of 4.237 with 7.27% overround.
Price dispersion across tracked operators is 11.39%, and price movement cannot be determined due to a single recorded observation with null opening prices.
Standard regular season scheduling is noted via ESPN and 365Scores with no reported market disruptions.
What the price requires
The price of 4.400 implies an outcome probability requiring Liaoning Tieren to outperform their nominal record of 1 win, 3 draws, and 7 losses across 11 away league matches (CL-f2198e6b-3ca).
Requires Yunnan Yukun's home performance to regress from their reported 7 wins in 12 home matches (CL-482ec880-c2d).
Requires Liaoning Tieren to overcome an average concession rate of 1.62 goals per match with only 2 clean sheets recorded.
Material findings and their support6
Statistic · for the caseLiaoning Tieren forward Jeffinho is the team's top goalscorer in league play with 10 goals in 22 appearances.Supported
Venue · against the caseThe match between Yunnan Yukun and Liaoning Tieren is scheduled to be held at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Yuxi, China PR.Stale
Statistic · material · against the caseLiaoning Tieren sits 13th in the Chinese Super League standings with 25 points from 24 matches (7 wins, 4 draws, 13 losses, with 34 goals scored and 41 conceded).Stale
Statistic · material · against the caseYunnan Yukun sits 6th in the Chinese Super League standings with 35 points from 25 matches (10 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses, with 49 goals scored and 51 conceded).Stale
Statistic · material · against the caseLiaoning Tieren has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 7 losses across 11 away league matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 19.Unsupported
Statistic · material · against the caseYunnan Yukun has recorded 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in 12 home league matches, scoring 26 goals and conceding 19.Unsupported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Zero material claims are supported by fresh or verified evidence: two material form claims have no sources whatsoever, and the two league standings claims rely entirely on sources published more than 200 days prior in February 2026.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
FINDING-001 [UNSUPPORTED_CLAIM] Material claims regarding team home and away records have no supporting sources. (refs: CL-f2198e6b-3ca, CL-482ec880-c2d)
FINDING-002 [STALE_EVIDENCE] Material claims regarding league standings rest entirely on sources from February 2026 for a September 2026 match. (refs: CL-54ebe3ae-238, CL-37ec4dc2-626, CS-175633d6-687, CS-9f0a8587-4d1)
Why the market may simply be right
The market consensus median of 3.950 across 47 operators reflects Liaoning Tieren's weak away record (1 win in 11) against a Yunnan Yukun squad that has won 7 of 12 home fixtures, making the 4.400 quote an accurate reflection of high away-loss risk rather than mispricing.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.400
Market reference
3.950 · 47 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.39 · edge 3.85%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
