This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
What has to change
Re-enters if the best verified price reaches 1.90 (last seen 1.850).
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade BAdversarial review · Low
Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg: Under 3.50 Goals Market Assessment
Matchbook offers Under 3.50 goals at 1.890 for the 2. Bundesliga meeting between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg at Olympiastadion. This price retains a 3.62% modeled edge against a fair de-vigged benchmark of 1.824, but sits at the exact acceptable price cutoff (1.89) and diverges notably from the 20-operator market median of 1.705.
Primary case
Hertha BSC host 1. FC Magdeburg at Olympiastadion in Berlin, entering the fixture in strong form with 9 points from their opening three 2. Bundesliga matches of the 2026/27 season to sit second in the table.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 6 points from their opening three league fixtures to occupy fifth place.
The top available quote of 1.890 at Matchbook clears the modeled fair price of 1.824 (derived from a 54.83% fair win probability), maintaining an apparent edge of 3.62% over the fair baseline.
Major uncertainty
The edge on Under 3.50 goals rests on a single exchange quote of 1.890 at Matchbook which barely clears the acceptable threshold of 1.890, while the 20-operator consensus median sits significantly lower at 1.705 with an elevated dispersion of 10.85%.
Market context
The best global price for Under 3.50 goals is 1.890 from Matchbook in the UK region (evidence OE-a9cceef43de16d37, captured 2026-09-06T05:39:17.978Z).
The 20-operator reference median is priced considerably shorter at 1.705, yielding an overround of 6.96% across two-way pricing.
Dispersion across surveyed operators is elevated at 10.85%, reflecting significant divergence between mainstream bookmaker consensus and the top exchange quote.
Directional price velocity is unconfirmed due to a single movement sample with an unrecorded opening price.
What the price requires
A decimal price of 1.890 implies a break-even probability of 52.91%, whereas the de-vigged fair benchmark of 1.824 requires a true match probability of at least 54.83% for Under 3.50 goals.
The total scoreline must remain at 3 goals or fewer, demanding that neither Hertha's offensive run (consecutive scoring in 12 fixtures) nor Magdeburg's away scoring streak (7 consecutive matches) causes a high-variance blowout.
Material findings and their support6
Venue · for the caseThe match between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg takes place at Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany.Supported
Statistic · for the caseHertha BSC entered the fixture with 9 points from their first three 2. Bundesliga matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses), while 1. FC Magdeburg had 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss).Supported
Other · material · for the caseHertha BSC have collected 9 points from their first three 2. Bundesliga matches of the 2026/27 season to sit second, while 1. FC Magdeburg have 6 points from three fixtures to sit fifth ahead of their meeting at Berlin's Olympiastadion.Supported
Other · material · for the caseHertha Berlin contested a 2-2 pre-season draw against 1. FC Köln in Kitzbühel, with Sebastian Grönning and Soufian Gouram scoring the equalisers.Supported
Injury · against the case1. FC Magdeburg player Lubambo Musonda is unavailable due to an Achilles tendon injury with an expected return in mid-October 2026.Stale
Availability · against the caseHertha BSC have no reported unavailable players heading into the match.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The edge on Under 3.50 goals rests on a single exchange quote of 1.890 at Matchbook which barely clears the acceptable threshold of 1.890, while the 20-operator consensus median sits significantly lower at 1.705 with an elevated dispersion of 10.85%.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
With 20 operators pricing the line at a median of 1.705, the broader market consensus may accurately capture expected match pace and high variance, leaving the isolated 1.890 quote mispriced or temporary.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
1.850
Market reference
1.710 · 21 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
1.90 · edge 0.87%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
