Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · J League · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock window
Passed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-Pulse: Over 2.50 Goals Market Assessment
Evaluation of the Over 2.50 market for Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-Pulse. While Matchbook posts a leading price of 1.810 against a market median of 1.620, the position cannot be supported due to critical data infirmities: key team scoring metrics are unsupported and crucial squad absence reports are stale.
Primary case
Matchbook offers an available price of 1.810 against a 19-operator market reference median of 1.620 and a de-vigged fair price of 1.747.
Kawasaki Frontale season metrics record 9 goals scored and 8 goals conceded across 5 matches [source_hint: CS-423e0f2f-1b4], suggesting high-scoring match potential.
Major uncertainty
The proposition Over 2.50 depends on zero verified sources, while the only available form data indicates that Shimizu S-Pulse matches average just 1.2 total goals, directly undermining an Over outcome via unsupported and stale claims.
Market context
The best available decimal price is 1.810 from Matchbook in the UK region, observed on September 6, 2026.
The reference median across 19 operators is 1.620, with a proportional de-vigged fair price of 1.747 given an overround of 7.81 percent.
Historical price movement is unavailable as only a single price sample has been captured without an opening price or percentage change.
Dispersion across tracked operators is 11.73 percent, which is near the policy ceiling of 12.00 percent.
What the price requires
The price requires Kawasaki Frontale to generate substantial scoring output despite reports that four attacking players are sidelined [claim_id: CL-99f7ac6e-1a3].
The price requires Matchbook's 1.810 quote to be an actionable mispricing rather than an unconfirmed exchange outlier relative to the 1.620 market median.
Material findings and their support5
Injury · against the caseKawasaki Frontale players Yu Kobayashi (calf injury), Akihiro Ienaga (calf injury), Lazar Romanic (foot injury), and Ten Miyagi (hamstring injury) are ruled out for the match against Shimizu S-Pulse.Stale
Injury · against the caseShimizu S-Pulse player Du-jae Won is ruled out of the match due to a shoulder injury.Stale
Venue · against the caseThe match between Kawasaki Frontale and Shimizu S-Pulse is scheduled to be played at the National Olympic Stadium in Tokyo, Japan.Stale
Statistic · against the caseThrough five league matches, Shimizu S-Pulse has scored 2 goals and conceded 4 goals (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses).Unsupported
Statistic · against the caseThrough five league matches, Kawasaki Frontale has scored 9 goals and conceded 8 goals (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss).Unsupported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition Over 2.50 depends on zero verified sources, while the only available form data indicates that Shimizu S-Pulse matches average just 1.2 total goals, directly undermining an Over outcome via unsupported and stale claims.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
F-01 [UNSUPPORTED_CLAIM] Opposing form statistic showing an average of only 1.2 total goals per match for Shimizu S-Pulse is unsupported. (refs: CL-dd2dfd7d-a1b)
F-02 [STALE_EVIDENCE] Reported key attacking absences for Kawasaki Frontale undermine Over 2.50 but rely on stale evidence. (refs: CL-99f7ac6e-1a3)
Why the market may simply be right
The 19-operator median price of 1.620 (fair price 1.747) reflects an efficient consensus that Over 2.5 is favoured, making the 1.810 quote an unconfirmed exchange outlier.
Dispersion across operators is 11.73 percent, very close to the policy ceiling of 12.00 percent, indicating substantial bookmaker disagreement.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
1.830
Market reference
1.700 · 19 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
1.91 · edge -0.65%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
