ENGINE ACTIVITY · RESEARCH CANDIDATE

Juve Stabia vs Pisa

Under 2.5 total goals · Total

Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position

Football · Serie B - Italy · Starts 2026-09-06 13:00 UTC

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Decided: Sep 6 · 07:57 UTC
Main reason: Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade UNGRADEDAdversarial review · Blocking

Juve Stabia vs. Pisa: Under 2.50 Goals Market Evaluation

An analysis of the Juve Stabia vs. Pisa fixture highlights an observed Matchbook price of 1.750 against a 19-operator median of 1.570; however, the case currently rests on an UNGRADED evidence base where all underlying claims regarding match scheduling, early-season performance, and player injuries remain unsupported.

Primary case

Early Serie B records attribute 2 matches played, 2 goals scored, and 2 goals conceded to Juve Stabia (source hint CS-55865d7e-731; claim CL-6a8f28cb-131 marked unsupported).
Pisa is recorded with 2 matches played, 2 goals scored, and 2 goals conceded across their opening Serie B fixtures (source hint CS-55865d7e-731; claim CL-8f69730c-75b marked unsupported).
Contextual reporting references an injury to Juve Stabia forward Filippo Pittarello lasting until mid-September 2026 (source hint CS-30bc3660-2b6; claim CL-5ce0d0ba-beb marked unsupported).

Major uncertainty

The position relies entirely on unsupported research claims with zero verified sources, while the 1.750 quote on Matchbook exhibits an 11.46% dispersion against the consensus 19-operator median of 1.570.

Market context

The best global price is observed at 1.750 on Matchbook in the UK region, while the movement price was recorded at 1.740.
The market reference price is established at 1.570 across a 19-operator median, implying a two-way de-vigged fair price of 1.689 (59.22% fair probability, 7.55% overround).
Dispersion across 19 operators stands at 11.46%, approaching the 12.00% maximum policy threshold.
Price movement history contains only a single sample with no opening price or drift direction recorded.

What the price requires

The 1.750 quote on Matchbook implies a required win probability of approximately 57.14% to break even before overround adjustments.
Sustained low scoring relies on unverified offensive limitations, including the unconfirmed absence of forward Filippo Pittarello.

Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.

Candidate IDCAND-20260906-cbf21211

Scan IDRUN-20260906-1e804e35

Event IDEV-20260906-42a35d71e645

Scan summary: Open the scan
Policy version: v1.2
Board day: 2026-09-06
Screened: not retained
Research completed: 2026-09-06 07:50 UTC
Decided: 2026-09-06 07:57 UTC

Decision

Outcome

Declined after research

Decided

Sep 6 · 07:57 UTC

Main reason

Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade UNGRADEDAdversarial review · Blocking

Juve Stabia vs. Pisa: Under 2.50 Goals Market Evaluation

Primary case

Early Serie B records attribute 2 matches played, 2 goals scored, and 2 goals conceded to Juve Stabia (source hint CS-55865d7e-731; claim CL-6a8f28cb-131 marked unsupported).

Pisa is recorded with 2 matches played, 2 goals scored, and 2 goals conceded across their opening Serie B fixtures (source hint CS-55865d7e-731; claim CL-8f69730c-75b marked unsupported).

Contextual reporting references an injury to Juve Stabia forward Filippo Pittarello lasting until mid-September 2026 (source hint CS-30bc3660-2b6; claim CL-5ce0d0ba-beb marked unsupported).

Major uncertainty

Market context

The best global price is observed at 1.750 on Matchbook in the UK region, while the movement price was recorded at 1.740.
The market reference price is established at 1.570 across a 19-operator median, implying a two-way de-vigged fair price of 1.689 (59.22% fair probability, 7.55% overround).
Dispersion across 19 operators stands at 11.46%, approaching the 12.00% maximum policy threshold.
Price movement history contains only a single sample with no opening price or drift direction recorded.

What the price requires

The 1.750 quote on Matchbook implies a required win probability of approximately 57.14% to break even before overround adjustments.
Sustained low scoring relies on unverified offensive limitations, including the unconfirmed absence of forward Filippo Pittarello.

Decision

Research

Juve Stabia vs. Pisa: Under 2.50 Goals Market Evaluation

Decision

Research

Juve Stabia vs. Pisa: Under 2.50 Goals Market Evaluation

Adversarial review

Why it entered research