Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260906-c748f583

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 4 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 13:24 UTC
Policy: v1.2

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Moneyline
Best verified price: 2.400
Market reference: 2.250 · 10 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 2.47 · edge 0.84%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

2026 US Open: Daniil Medvedev Outlier Price Evaluation

BetRivers lists Daniil Medvedev at an outlier price of 2.550 compared to a 10-operator market median of 2.250 at the 2026 US Open. However, the absence of a confirmed executable price, combined with zero line movement history and a blocking red team finding, undermines execution feasibility.

Primary case

Daniil Medvedev is seeded No. 7 at the 2026 US Open and defeated Sebastian Gorzny in straight sets (6-3, 6-3, 7-5) to advance through round two (CL-da67dac8-2eb, CS-5cae6b67-d33).
Frances Tiafoe is entered as the tournament's 11th seed (CL-14a78708-34a, CS-eec1c7de-c41).
The best recorded global price of 2.550 at BetRivers exceeds the model-calculated acceptable price threshold of 2.470.

Market context

The current best global price is 2.550 offered by BetRivers in the United States region, but no separate executable price is specified.
The market reference price across ten operators has a median of 2.250; after applying a proportional two-way de-vig with 5.79% overround, the fair price is 2.380 (42.01% fair probability).
Factoring in a 2.00% edge buffer and a 1.50% uncertainty margin sets the acceptable price threshold at 2.470, which 2.550 clears.
Operator price dispersion is elevated at 13.33% across ten tracked bookmakers, and line movement cannot be assessed due to having only a single price sample.