Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers · Richmond Tigers to win · candidate | GLINTARY

ENGINE ACTIVITY · RESEARCH CANDIDATE

Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers

Richmond Tigers to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position

Aussie Rules · AFL Women's · Starts 2026-09-06 02:30 UTC

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Decided: Sep 6 · 00:12 UTC
Main reason: Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 1 more)

Gates that did not pass

UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

AFLW: Richmond vs Fremantle Market Assessment Post-Conti Scratch

Richmond faces Fremantle after superstar Monique Conti was confirmed as a late withdrawal. While Dabble Australia offers a top price of 3.300 against a median consensus of 3.000, this nominal clearance above the 3.290 threshold carries critical risk of being an artifact of stale reference lines following breaking team news.

Primary case

Richmond enters the match at 1-1 following an 11-point defeat to the Western Bulldogs, while Fremantle secured their first win via midfield dominance over Collingwood (CL-9c1006b2-724).
Richmond superstar Monique Conti was ruled out as a confirmed late withdrawal ahead of the fixture (CL-64cd588a-a4f, CL-db52542d-36d).
Dabble Australia provides an observed market price of 3.300, which numerically exceeds the required 3.290 threshold derived from a fair value benchmark of 3.174.

Major uncertainty

Whether Dabble Australia's 3.300 quote is an isolated pricing inefficiency or an updated line reflecting Monique Conti's late withdrawal while the ten reference operators remain stale at 3.000.

Market context

The reference median across eleven operators is 3.000, yielding a de-vigged fair decimal price of 3.174 based on a two-way proportional method with a 5.80% overround.
The acceptable threshold price of 3.290 includes a 2.00% edge buffer and a 1.50% uncertainty margin over the calculated fair value.
Price dispersion across the eleven books sits high at 10.00%, while historical movement trajectory remains unknown because only a single observation sample exists in the system.

What the price requires

Richmond must retain a win probability consistent with a 3.174 fair decimal price despite losing primary midfielder Monique Conti.
The median consensus of 3.000 across the ten other operators must reflect active, post-withdrawal pricing rather than lagging, stale books.

Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.

Candidate IDCAND-20260906-c01fc66b

Scan IDRUN-20260906-66deb784

Event IDEV-20260906-27f2a6e92708

Scan summary: Open the scan
Policy version: v1.2
Board day: 2026-09-06
Screened: not retained
Research completed: 2026-09-06 00:08 UTC
Decided: 2026-09-06 00:12 UTC

Decision

Research

AFLW: Richmond vs Fremantle Market Assessment Post-Conti Scratch

Adversarial review

Why it entered research