Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Belgium First Div · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 1 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying odds
Passed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Medium
Anderlecht vs Genk: Under 2.5 Evaluation Amid Stale Squad Data and High-Scoring Trends
Evaluation of the Under 2.5 goals market for Anderlecht vs Genk at Lotto Park shows available pricing of 2.380 against a de-vig fair price of 2.297. However, the supporting thesis is impaired by a material claim regarding Genk injuries relying on stale 2023 data, alongside strong empirical trends where all four of Genk's league fixtures have exceeded 2.5 goals.
Primary case
Anderlecht has exhibited low-scoring league form across four fixtures, scoring 3 goals and conceding 5, with two low-scoring victories (1-0 vs Kortrijk, 2-1 vs La Louviere) and two defeats (0-1 vs Beveren, 0-3 vs Union) (CL-fd0b9676-716).
Anderlecht forward Adriano Bertaccini is unavailable due to a red card suspension (CL-5599ddc9-9e9), dampening offensive output alongside defensive absences for Killian Sardella, Ilay Camara, and Lucas Hey (CL-8305a9ed-a46).
The market price of 2.380 clears the acceptable price threshold of 2.380, derived from a median reference price of 2.140 and a fair de-vig price of 2.297 across 17 tracked operators.
Major uncertainty
Material claim CL-3b025817-d61 regarding Genk player injuries relies on three-year-old stale data, while Genk's active matches have uniformly produced over 2.5 goals (averaging 5.0 goals per fixture), directly challenging the premise of a low-scoring game.
Market context
The best global price of 2.380 is offered by Matchbook in the UK region, recorded at 2026-09-06T06:05:50.126Z.
The market reference price is 2.140 across 17 operators, with an 11.21% price dispersion.
Proportional two-way de-vig calculates a fair decimal price of 2.297 with an overround of 7.33%, against an acceptable price threshold of 2.380 incorporating a 2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin.
Only a single price sample has been recorded at 2.380, leaving opening price and price movement percentages unavailable.
What the price requires
The price of 2.380 requires a significant deceleration in Genk's scoring rate, which currently averages 5.0 total goals per match in league play (CL-4634ee2c-9d8).
Anderlecht's depleted defensive unit must contain Genk's attack despite missing Killian Sardella, Ilay Camara, and Lucas Hey (CL-8305a9ed-a46).
Material findings and their support8
Injury · material · for the caseKillian Sardella, Ilay Camara, and Lucas Hey (broken leg) are unavailable for Anderlecht due to injuries.Supported
Suspension · material · for the caseAnderlecht forward Adriano Bertaccini is listed with a red card suspension.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseAll four of Genk's league matches this season have produced over 2.5 goals, with the team scoring 12 and conceding 8 (results: 1-2 loss to Zulte Waregem, 3-2 win over Westerlo, 4-4 draw with Antwerp, and 4-0 win over Beveren).Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseAnderlecht have scored 3 goals and conceded 5 through 4 league fixtures, recording 2 wins (1-0 vs Kortrijk, 2-1 vs La Louviere) and 2 defeats (0-1 vs Beveren, 0-3 vs Union).Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match will take place at Lotto Park in Anderlecht, Belgium.Supported
Line-up · for the caseAnderlecht are projected to start Coosemans, Maamar, Biancone, Petrot, Augustinsson, Ambros, Llansana, M. Kana, Nga Kana, Cvetkovic, and Sikan; Genk are projected to start Brughmans, Amaro, Smets, Kongolo, Kayembe Ditu, Bangoura, Heynen, Ito, Erenbjerg, Yokoyama, and Durosinmi.Supported
Other · for the caseClub Brugge, Anderlecht, and Genk competed in the first leg of European playoff qualifying rounds across three different competitions ahead of the season.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Material claim CL-3b025817-d61 regarding Genk's injuries is marked STALE and relies on source CS-7e60a8ac-55d from October 2023 (nearly 3 years old), causing the evidence grade to fall to B- and failing lockable status.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The market median price of 2.140 across 17 operators reflects the high-scoring reality of Genk's matches (4/4 Over 2.5) and Anderlecht's missing defenders, meaning the long odds of 2.380 on Under 2.5 accurately reflect significant tail risk rather than true mispricing.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
2.380
Market reference
2.140 · 17 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.38 · edge 3.61%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
Genk players Christian Akpan (hamstring), Kenan Haroun (knee), Adrian Palacios (knee), and Ken Nkuba Tshiend (knee) are reported unavailable due to injury.
