ENGINE ACTIVITY · RESEARCH CANDIDATE

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg

Augsburg to win · Match Winner

Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position

Football · Bundesliga - Germany · Starts 2026-09-06 15:30 UTC

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Decided: Sep 6 · 15:30 UTC
Main reason: The event had already started

Gates that did not pass

Event integrityThe event had already startedFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityThe event had already startedFailed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low

FC Augsburg Value Assessment at Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)

FC Augsburg heads to Deutsche Bank Park to face Eintracht Frankfurt following a 3-0 season-opening win over Schalke 04, while Frankfurt drew 3-3 with 1. FC Union Berlin. Market pricing on Betfair Exchange UK shows an away decimal price of 4.100, which clears the de-vigged fair benchmark of 3.933 and the model threshold of 4.080, albeit with significant personnel doubts and commission sensitivity.

Primary case

FC Augsburg opened their Bundesliga campaign with a convincing 3-0 victory over Schalke 04, earning three points (CS-070a4073-11a, CL-c78f4b2a-be6, CL-fd2fb21c-63e).
Eintracht Frankfurt conceded three goals in an open 3-3 away draw against 1. FC Union Berlin to start their campaign (CS-070a4073-11a, CL-ad716cc0-1dd, CL-fd2fb21c-63e).
Frankfurt deals with notable squad absences, with forwards Ansgar Knauff and Jessic Ngankam sidelined by hamstring injuries (CL-1f574014-ce6, CL-fbd35fb5-e7f), Collins out, and Aséko and Larsson listed among the doubtful (CL-3a59d8f2-bf8).

Major uncertainty

Exchange commission structures on Betfair Exchange UK threaten to eliminate the narrow 0.02 decimal point cushion over the 4.080 threshold, compounded by Augsburg traveling with multiple unconfirmed and injured starters to a venue where they have recorded zero wins in their last five head-to-head encounters.

Market context

The best global decimal price for an Augsburg victory is 4.100 observed at Betfair Exchange UK on 6 September 2026 at 15:24:58 UTC; no executable bookmaker price was identified.
The market reference decimal price is 3.700 across 53 tracking operators, with market dispersion recorded at 10.81%.
The proportional three-way de-vigged fair price is 3.933 (implied probability of 25.42% against a 6.30% overround).
Under policy v1.0 parameters (2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin), the acceptable decimal threshold is 4.080, providing a 4.25% theoretical edge at the 4.100 price.

What the price requires

Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.

Candidate IDCAND-20260906-b52a8d7b

Scan IDRUN-20260906-19b65a06

Event IDEV-20260906-c1a4c40e4297

Scan summary: Open the scan
Policy version: v1.2
Board day: 2026-09-06
Screened: 2026-09-06 15:27 UTC
Research completed: 2026-09-06 15:28 UTC
Decided: 2026-09-06 15:30 UTC

Decision

Outcome

Declined after research

Decided

Sep 6 · 15:30 UTC

Main reason

The event had already started

Gates that did not pass

Event integrityThe event had already startedFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityThe event had already startedFailed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low

FC Augsburg Value Assessment at Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)

Primary case

FC Augsburg opened their Bundesliga campaign with a convincing 3-0 victory over Schalke 04, earning three points (CS-070a4073-11a, CL-c78f4b2a-be6, CL-fd2fb21c-63e).

Eintracht Frankfurt conceded three goals in an open 3-3 away draw against 1. FC Union Berlin to start their campaign (CS-070a4073-11a, CL-ad716cc0-1dd, CL-fd2fb21c-63e).

Frankfurt deals with notable squad absences, with forwards Ansgar Knauff and Jessic Ngankam sidelined by hamstring injuries (CL-1f574014-ce6, CL-fbd35fb5-e7f), Collins out, and Aséko and Larsson listed among the doubtful (CL-3a59d8f2-bf8).

Major uncertainty

Market context

The best global decimal price for an Augsburg victory is 4.100 observed at Betfair Exchange UK on 6 September 2026 at 15:24:58 UTC; no executable bookmaker price was identified.
The market reference decimal price is 3.700 across 53 tracking operators, with market dispersion recorded at 10.81%.
The proportional three-way de-vigged fair price is 3.933 (implied probability of 25.42% against a 6.30% overround).
Under policy v1.0 parameters (2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin), the acceptable decimal threshold is 4.080, providing a 4.25% theoretical edge at the 4.100 price.

What the price requires

Decision

Research

FC Augsburg Value Assessment at Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)

Decision

Research

FC Augsburg Value Assessment at Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)

Adversarial review

Why it entered research