Nagoya Grampus vs FC Machida Zelvia · Under 2.5 total goals · candidate | GLINTARY

ENGINE ACTIVITY · RESEARCH CANDIDATE

Nagoya Grampus vs FC Machida Zelvia

Under 2.5 total goals · Total

Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position

Football · J League · Starts 2026-09-06 09:00 UTC

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Decided: Sep 6 · 00:35 UTC
Main reason: Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus: Outlier Pricing Assessment

Matchbook offers a standout decimal price of 2.100 on Machida Zelvia against a 19-operator median reference of 1.890, technically exceeding the 2.09 acceptance threshold. However, all underlying factual and narrative claims regarding team form, rest, and player availability are completely unsupported, and market movement history is absent.

Primary case

Sports metrics record Machida Zelvia leading the head-to-head record with 5 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses across 8 matches (CS-c9fd5a8f-250).
Machida Zelvia holds 15 goals scored and 4 conceded over 5 season matches (CS-68880842-ba9, CS-86e8c1a9-e9b), compared to Nagoya Grampus with 2 wins and 3 losses in 5 matches (CS-86e8c1a9-e9b).
All qualitative claims regarding current standings, Matchweek 5 occurrences, identical rest periods, and recent transfer activity (CL-b7ff0f66-50c, CL-0bb766da-05d, CL-b5e55a41-819, CL-ff84af64-a4a) remain unverified with an UNSUPPORTED status.

Major uncertainty

Every material claim supporting this position is marked UNSUPPORTED, and the best available price of 2.100 on Matchbook is an isolated outlier against a market median of 1.890 that barely clears the 2.09 acceptance hurdle without any recorded line history.

Market context

The best global decimal price is 2.100 recorded at Matchbook on September 6, 2026.
The market reference median across 19 operators is 1.890, yielding a de-vigged fair price of 2.016 and an acceptable threshold of 2.09.
Dispersion across the 19 operators stands high at 11.11%, indicating substantial disagreement across books.
Price movement is unknown due to only a single recorded observation with no opening decimal price or percentage move available.

What the price requires

A decimal price of 2.100 requires the true win probability to exceed 47.6% (fair decimal price below 2.100).
The thesis requires Matchbook's 2.100 quote to represent genuine executable liquidity rather than an unbacked exchange outlier, given that the consensus fair price is 2.016 against a 1.890 median.

Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.

Candidate IDCAND-20260906-b3c7a3d3

Scan IDRUN-20260906-9535ef29

Event IDEV-20260906-a46852ceaa35

Scan summary: Open the scan
Policy version: v1.2
Board day: 2026-09-06
Screened: 2026-09-06 00:25 UTC
Research completed: 2026-09-06 00:30 UTC
Decided: 2026-09-06 00:35 UTC

Decision

Research

FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus: Outlier Pricing Assessment

Adversarial review

Why it entered research