Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Baseball · MLB · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
The event had already started (and 4 more)
Gates that did not pass
Event integrityThe event had already startedFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityThe event had already startedFailed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking
Research Note: Yankees at Padres Over 7.5 Runs
The proposed Over 7.5 runs position relies on a combined season scoring average of 8.78 runs per game, Walker Buehler's 4.66 ERA, and recent Yankees offensive output (39 runs across five games). However, the position faces critical execution and fundamental headwinds: the best global price of 2.060 matches the minimum acceptable price with zero buffer, the best executable price is currently null, and Max Fried's 2.80 ERA alongside major injuries to key hitters (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton) strongly aligns with season trends favoring the Under.
Primary case
Over 7.5 runs carries a 54.3% projected probability with a 5.3% edge via Dimers, supported by a combined team scoring pace of 8.78 runs per game (CL-8a35c2c5-008, CS-3c515d23-aab).
Padres starter Walker Buehler has struggled with a 4.66 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and 69 runs allowed across 131.1 innings pitched this season (CL-1dc042a1-09e, CL-8a35c2c5-008).
The Yankees offense enters with momentum, scoring 39 runs over their past five games, and the Over has hit in 41 of 79 games following a Yankees win (CL-ef8b0b21-786).
Major uncertainty
No executable quote is currently available (best_executable is null) while the best observed price of 2.060 sits directly on the minimum boundary with zero buffer, and elite pitching from Max Fried (2.80 ERA) combined with 60-day IL stints for Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton heavily contradicts run production.
Market context
The current best global price is 2.060 via lowvig across eleven tracked operators, precisely meeting the minimum acceptable threshold of 2.06 with zero margin (market_context).
The market reference price is established at 2.000 based on the median of eleven operators, reflecting a de-vigged fair price of 1.990 (50.25% fair probability) against an edge hurdle of 3.52% (market_context).
Operator dispersion is tightly clustered at 3.00% across eleven books, indicating strong market consensus around the median (market_context).
Only a single price sample has been captured, meaning historical line movement and opening odds remain unobserved (market_context).
What the price requires
The bet requires obtaining an executable price of at least 2.060 to clear the acceptable threshold hurdle against the reference median of 2.000.
The game must clear 8 or more combined runs despite Max Fried's 1.00 WHIP and 2.80 ERA, Petco Park's pitching environment, and multiple offensive absences.
The Yankees must sustain high scoring output despite missing key sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Material findings and their support12
Starting pitcher · material · for the caseWalker Buehler is the starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres.Supported
Starting pitcher · material · for the caseMax Fried is the starting pitcher for the New York Yankees.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseWalker Buehler has recorded a 4.66 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 131.1 innings pitched this season.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseMax Fried holds a 2.80 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP across 90.0 innings pitched over 16 starts this season.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseYankees outfielders Aaron Judge (rib) and Giancarlo Stanton (calf) are both listed on the 60-day injured list.Supported
Injury · material · for the casePadres position players Miguel Andujar (wrist, 10-day IL), Gavin Sheets (foot, 10-day IL), Ramon Laureano (hip, 60-day IL), and Luis Rengifo (knee, 60-day IL) are sidelined.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe game is hosted at Petco Park in San Diego, California.Supported
Weather · for the caseWeather conditions for the matchup at Petco Park are reported as fair.Supported
Statistic · for the case
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The position cannot be locked because there is no executable quote available (best_executable is null), the best global price of 2.060 sits directly on the minimum acceptable boundary of 2.06 with zero buffer, and the fundamental matchup heavily contradicts an Over bet due to elite pitching (Max Fried 2.80 ERA), severe offensive injuries to both teams (Judge and Stanton out for the Yankees), and strongly Under-skewed season trends.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
Why is best_executable null, and through which operator can this position actually be executed at or above 2.060?
How does the devig calculation explain a negative overround (-0.50%) on a two-way market?
How does the Over thesis reconcile the absence of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton alongside both teams' season-long sub-45% Over hit rates?
Why the market may simply be right
The market consensus is tightly clustered with a 3.00% dispersion across 11 operators, indicating strong book agreement around a median of 2.000.
Petco Park combined with Max Fried's 2.80 ERA and key offensive injuries on both rosters justifies a lower run expectation.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
1.870
Market reference
1.830 · 7 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
1.99 · edge -2.35%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
The over on total runs has cashed 61 times out of 140 games for the Yankees (61-75-4) and 62 times out of 140 games for the Padres (62-75-3) this season.
Supported
Other · material · for the caseThe San Diego Padres average 4.2 runs per game (594 total runs, 22nd in MLB) with 153 home runs and a.237 batting average, while the New York Yankees score 4.5 runs per game (636 total runs, 11th) with 192 home runs and a.234 batting average.Supported
Other · material · for the caseThe Yankees offense has scored 39 runs over their last five games, starting pitcher Max Fried holds a 2.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 16 starts, and the Over is 41-37-1 in games following a Yankees win.Supported
Other · material · for the caseOver 7.5 runs has a 54.3% projected probability and a 5.3% edge via Dimers, supported by a combined team scoring average of 8.78 runs per game and Walker Buehler's 4.66 ERA with 69 runs allowed across 131.1 innings.Supported
