Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry · Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win · candidate | GLINTARY

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Tennis · ATP US Open · 2026-09-06 15:00 UTC

Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win · Moneyline

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260906-a5badc5f

NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION

This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome: Declined after research
Main reason: Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 4 more)
Decided: 2026-09-05 08:40 UTC
Policy: v1.1

Gates that did not pass

EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed

Full gate trace (9 gates)

Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPersonnel information older than the limitFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

The screening row for this candidate was not retained.

Screened: not retained
Market: Moneyline
Best verified price: 3.800
Market reference: 3.550 · 8 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds: 3.89 · edge 1.28%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Market Discrepancy Against Unconfirmed Execution

An apparent pricing edge appears at FanDuel offering 4.100 against an acceptable threshold of 3.890 for Alex Michelsen versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry scheduled for September 6, 2026. However, sports performance data is entirely absent, best executable price is null, and the broader market median sits substantially lower at 3.550 with 15.49% dispersion.

Primary case

Alex Michelsen is scheduled to play Tomas Martin Etcheverry on September 6, 2026 (CL-cede37b5-fa8).
FanDuel offers a global quote of 4.100, which exceeds the calculated acceptable threshold of 3.890 incorporating a 2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin.

Market context

The market reference price across eight tracked operators stands at a median of 3.550, with a de-vigged fair price of 3.752 and an implied fair probability of 26.65% under a 5.69% overround.
Market dispersion across the eight operators is elevated at 15.49%.
Historical line movement data is unavailable, with only a single recorded observation at 4.100.

What the price requires

The position requires an executable fill at or near the 4.100 global quote, which significantly outpaces the de-vigged fair benchmark of 3.752.