Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Primera División - Chile · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)
Gates that did not pass
Event integrityToo close to the start for a lockFailed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityToo close to the start for a lockFailed
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade UNGRADEDAdversarial review · Low
Deportes La Serena vs. Ñublense: Market Edge Assessment
The position rests on a narrow pricing divergence where Matchbook offers a decimal price of 2.220 against a median reference price of 2.020 across seven operators. However, there are no material research claims establishing an independent fundamental advantage, no executable price is currently available, and the edge is sensitive to exchange commission.
Primary case
The best global decimal price of 2.220 observed on Matchbook (evidence id OE-a227389f0636182b) slightly exceeds the policy minimum acceptable threshold of 2.210.
Non-material context notes that Ñublense had approximately three and a half days of rest following their September 3 match against Deportes Limache (claim CL-74023d30-a15).
Axel Alfonzo served a suspension during Ñublense's prior fixture on September 3, 2026 (claim CL-a5003f14-99d).
Major uncertainty
The edge is razor-thin (best global price of 2.220 vs. acceptable threshold of 2.210) and originates from an exchange where standard commission would eliminate the margin, observed only once 17 minutes prior to kickoff with zero prior movement history.
Market context
The best global price is 2.220 from Matchbook in the UK region (evidence id OE-a227389f0636182b), observed at 2026-09-06T15:12:28.639Z, with no currently executable price available.
The market reference median across 7 operators is 2.020, yielding a de-vigged fair price of 2.135 (46.84% fair win probability) and an overround of 5.68%.
Applying a 2.00% edge buffer and a 1.50% uncertainty margin under policy v1.0 establishes a minimum acceptable decimal price of 2.210 (3.98% implied edge).
Price dispersion among the 7 operators is 9.90%, and price movement trajectory is unknown due to only a single recorded observation.
What the price requires
The decimal price of 2.220 requires an implied win probability of no greater than 45.05% to break even before transaction costs.
To justify the required hurdle of 2.210, the selection requires an effective fair probability exceeding 46.84% under model assumptions.
Execution must occur without exchange commission reducing the net return below the 2.210 threshold.
Material findings and their support3
Rest · for the caseÑublense was scheduled to play Deportes Limache on September 3, 2026 at 00:30 UTC, giving them approximately three and a half days of rest before the match against La Serena on September 6.Supported
Suspension · for the caseAxel Alfonzo was listed as suspended for Ñublense's match against Deportes Limache on September 3, 2026.Supported
Venue · for the caseDeportes La Serena's home venue is Estadio La Portada in La Serena, Chile.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The edge is razor-thin (best global price of 2.220 vs. acceptable threshold of 2.210) and originates from an exchange (Matchbook) where standard commission would eliminate the edge, observed only once 17 minutes before kickoff with zero prior movement history.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
A median of 2.020 among 7 operators indicates consensus pricing that values Ñublense 0.00 considerably lower, suggesting 2.220 may simply be an isolated quote or trailing adjustment.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Spread
Best verified price
2.220
Market reference
2.020 · 8 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.21 · edge 3.98%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
