Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Premiership - Scotland · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Too close to the start for a lock
Gates that did not pass
Event integrityToo close to the start for a lockFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityToo close to the start for a lockFailed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)
Hearts vs Dundee FC: Over 3.5 total goals researched 6 September 2026, Declined after research | GLINTARY
Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
Hearts vs Dundee: Over 3.5 Goals Market Assessment
An assessment of Over 3.5 goals at Tynecastle Park where Hearts host Dundee. Matchbook offers the top price of 2.520 against a 7-operator market reference of 2.280, providing a 3.92% modelled edge despite substantial absences in Dundee's forward line.
Primary case
Hearts have scored 10 goals in 4 Scottish Premiership fixtures this season while remaining on a 7-match unbeaten run across all competitions (CS-ec09179d-c92, CS-7e2061af-80c).
Hearts enter the match on a tight turnaround, having played on Thursday, September 3, 2026, leaving only two full days of rest, with midfielder Laurent Mendy acknowledging that the squad's physical demands have tested the group (CL-9aa45caa-54d, CL-59c5393f-f24).
Hearts defenders Stephen Kingsley, Craig Halkett, and Malachi Fagan-Walcott carry injury concerns and are doubtful to feature, potentially weakening their defensive unit (CL-dc29489a-217).
Dundee matches show a strong late-game goal profile, with 7 of 10 total Premiership goals this season occurring in the second half (CL-011a5fce-a4d).
Major uncertainty
Dundee's primary forward Simon Murray is sidelined with a long-term ACL tear and forward Ashley Hay is also unavailable, significantly blunting the away side's attacking threat and ability to contribute toward a 4+ goal match.
Market context
The best global decimal price is 2.520 offered by Matchbook (UK region), observed at 2026-09-06T13:50:17.798Z.
The market reference price is 2.280 across seven operators with 10.53% dispersion, yielding a de-vigged fair price of 2.425 and a fair probability of 41.24% with an overround of 6.36%.
The acceptable decimal price threshold is set at 2.510 (including a 2.00% edge buffer and a 1.50% uncertainty margin), leaving a 3.92% edge that clears the threshold by 0.010.
Price movement data is limited, with only one sample recorded at 2.480 (2026-09-06T13:35:44.355Z), leaving opening price and trend percentage unknown.
What the price requires
At decimal odds of 2.520, the wager requires an implied probability of 39.68% or greater, clearing the model's de-vigged fair probability requirement of 41.24% to generate positive expectation.
The price demands that the match produce 4 or more total goals despite Dundee missing their primary central attacking options.
Material findings and their support9
Injury · material · for the caseDundee forward Simon Murray is ruled out with a long-term cruciate ligament injury.Supported
Injury · for the caseDundee forward Ashley Hay is doubtful to feature due to a knee injury.Supported
Injury · for the caseHearts player Tobias Renaud is ruled out due to an ankle injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseHearts defenders Stephen Kingsley, Craig Halkett, and Malachi Fagan-Walcott carry injury concerns and are doubtful.Supported
Rest · material · for the caseHearts played their previous Scottish Premiership fixture on Thursday, September 3, 2026, giving them two full days of rest before Sunday's match.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match takes place at Tynecastle Park in Edinburgh.Supported
Other · material · for the caseSeven of the 10 goals in Dundee's Scottish Premiership games this season have come in the second half of matches, with Dundee scoring four of six goals after half-time and conceding three of four after the break.Supported
Other · material · for the caseHearts midfielder Laurent Mendy admitted that the physical demands of the past week tested the squad, requiring the players to dig deep to secure two important victories.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition backs Over 3.5 goals in Scottish Premiership, but Dundee's primary forward Simon Murray is sidelined with a long-term ACL tear and forward Ashley Hay is also unavailable, significantly blunting the away side's attacking threat and ability to contribute toward a 4+ goal match.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The market median of 2.280 reflects a 41.24% de-vigged fair probability, and bookmakers may have already accounted for Dundee's depleted attack by keeping the Over 3.5 price relatively high.
The 10.53% dispersion across seven operators indicates broad consensus that Over 3.5 is an underdog outcome.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
2.540
Market reference
2.300 · 7 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.53 · edge 4.18%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
Other · material · for the caseDundee forward Simon Murray is sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury, while Ashley Hay and Imari Samuels remain unavailable.Supported
