Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Serie B - Italy · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Best price too far above the market reference to be believed (and 2 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceToo few distinct sources
Failed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade UNGRADEDAdversarial review · Low
Juve Stabia vs Pisa: Serie B Match Analysis and Pricing Evaluation
Juve Stabia hosts Pisa in Serie B with both sides recording identical early-season records of one win and one loss across two matches. Market pricing displays significant dispersion, with Smarkets offering a market-best price of 3.300 against a 55-operator median reference of 2.950, which sits exactly at the acceptable price threshold.
Primary case
Early season records sourced from CS-68e8ec4b-356 show Juve Stabia with 2 matches played, 1 win, 1 loss, 2 goals scored, and 2 goals conceded.
Third-party match data confirms Juve Stabia faces Pisa on 2026-09-06 (source: CS-c9fc1194-7cd), though specific venue and timing details remain unsupported (CL-ac14b2eb-f92).
Major uncertainty
The best price of 3.300 diverges substantially from the 55-operator consensus median of 2.950 with an 11.86 percent dispersion and only a single price observation recorded, leaving it uncertain whether the price represents genuine value or informed exchange volume fading Juve Stabia.
Market context
The best global decimal price is 3.300 available via Smarkets in the UK, observed on 2026-09-06T05:53:32.417Z.
The market reference price is 2.950 based on a median of 55 operators, yielding a proportional de-vig fair price of 3.187, an implied fair win probability of 31.37 percent, and an overround of 8.05 percent.
Market dispersion across the 55 surveyed operators is elevated at 11.86 percent, nearing the 12.00 percent policy cap.
Historical price movement is unknown as only a single price sample is recorded with no opening decimal price or trend percentage available.
What the price requires
The available price of 3.300 requires Juve Stabia's true win probability to exceed the de-vig benchmark fair threshold.
The price of 3.300 exactly meets the acceptable decimal price threshold of 3.30 (which incorporates a 2.00 percent edge buffer and a 1.50 percent uncertainty margin) with zero additional margin.
Material findings and their support2
Venue · against the caseThe Serie B match between Juve Stabia and Pisa is scheduled to be held at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti on September 6, 2026 at 13:00 UTC.Unsupported
Injury · against the caseAttacker Filippo Pittarello is listed as injured with an estimated return in mid-September 2026 ahead of the Juve Stabia vs Pisa fixture.Unsupported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The best global price of 3.300 at Smarkets diverges substantially from the 55-operator median reference of 2.950, driving market dispersion to 11.86% (just below the 12.00% cap) while clearing the acceptable threshold of 3.30 with zero margin to spare.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The consensus of 55 operators clustered around 2.950 suggests the wider market has accurately priced this match, making the isolated 3.300 quote on an exchange potentially stale or an outlier awaiting correction.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.300
Market reference
2.940 · 55 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.30 · edge 3.77%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
