Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Primeira Liga - Portugal · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock window
Passed
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Blocking
Santa Clara vs Rio Ave: Away Outright Assessment at Estádio de São Miguel
Rio Ave travels to face Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel (CL-5baa6ab9-88b) amidst squad availability issues, including confirmed injuries to Brandon Aguilera, Ryan Guilherme, and Cezary Miszta (CL-da0e46bf-d78), alongside doubt over Nelson Abbey (CL-5aa4d9c5-0ee). Rio Ave sits 13th with 3 points from 4 matches after a 0-4 home loss to Sporting CP (CL-77f42521-c63). While a market price of 4.700 on Smarkets provides a theoretical 3.68% edge against a devigged fair price of 4.533 across 55 books, material reporting on Santa Clara's standing (CL-99126532-913) is stale by ~138 days, and single-sample tracking precludes price momentum verification.
Primary case
A top decimal quote of 4.700 is available at Smarkets against a devigged fair price baseline of 4.533 and a median reference of 4.250 across 55 market operators (OE-73815ff3dfac2783).
Rio Ave has an opportunity to reset after a difficult start where they registered 1 win and 3 losses (2 goals scored, 7 conceded) across their opening 4 matches (CL-77f42521-c63, CS-5cbb7f61-2ef).
Santa Clara continues to operate without long-term absentee Matheus Araújo, sidelined since December 2025 with a cruciate ligament injury (CL-a36a3c27-904).
Major uncertainty
Material claim CL-99126532-913 regarding Santa Clara's undefeated record and league standing is marked STALE due to an outdated source from April 2026 (CS-007e1695-f11), which invalidates current baseline assumptions regarding Santa Clara's form.
Market context
The top market quote of 4.700 clears the required purchase threshold of 4.70, which accounts for a 22.06% fair probability (4.533 fair decimal), a 2.00% edge buffer, and a 1.50% uncertainty margin.
The median market price is 4.250 across 55 tracked operators with a dispersion of 10.59% (OE-73815ff3dfac2783).
Market price movement and momentum cannot be verified as only a single observation sample is recorded, leaving opening values and percentage moves undefined.
What the price requires
At a market quote of 4.700, the implied raw win probability is 21.28%, while the devigged fair probability across 55 operators requires Rio Ave to win at least 22.06% of the time.
Requires Rio Ave to overcome severe squad depletion away from home despite conceding 7 goals in 4 matches and recently losing 0-4 at home to Sporting CP (CL-77f42521-c63).
Material findings and their support7
Injury · material · for the caseRio Ave players Ryan Guilherme (ankle/foot), Cezary Miszta (fitness/back), and Brandon Aguilera (ACL) are sidelined with injuries and expected to miss the match.Supported
Availability · material · for the caseRio Ave defender Nelson Abbey's availability is uncertain after missing the previous three league matches.Supported
Availability · for the caseRio Ave right-back João Tomé recently returned from a muscle injury and was an unused substitute in their previous match.Supported
Injury · for the caseSanta Clara will be without long-term absentee MT (Matheus Araújo), who is recovering from a cruciate ligament injury suffered in December 2025.Supported
Venue · material · for the caseThe match takes place at Estádio de São Miguel in Ponta Delgada, Azores.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseRio Ave entered Matchday 5 in 13th place with 3 points from 4 matches (1 win, 3 losses, 2 goals scored, 7 conceded), coming off a 0-4 home defeat against Sporting CP.Supported
Statistic · material · against the caseSanta Clara entered Matchday 5 in 4th place undefeated with 8 points from 4 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 5 goals scored, 3 conceded).Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
Material claim CL-99126532-913 regarding Santa Clara's undefeated record and league standing is marked STALE, resting on a source from April 2026 (CS-007e1695-f11), which triggers an evidence grade cap of B- and renders the packet non-lockable (evidence_grade_lockable: false).
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
F-01 [STALE_EVIDENCE] Material claim CL-99126532-913 is marked STALE due to an outdated source CS-007e1695-f11, capping the evidence grade at B- and failing the lockable requirement. (refs: CL-99126532-913, CS-007e1695-f11)
Why the market may simply be right
The market median price of 4.250 across 55 operators reflects Rio Ave's poor form (13th place, 1 win, 3 losses, 7 conceded) and severe injury crisis away from home.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
4.700
Market reference
4.250 · 55 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
4.71 · edge 3.41%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
