Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Brazil Série B · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 3 more)
Gates that did not pass
Event integrityToo close to the start for a lockFailed
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityToo close to the start for a lockFailed
EvidenceA material claim was not adequately supportedFailed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B-Adversarial review · Medium
Série B: Operário PR at Londrina EC Research Note
Through 25 rounds of Série B, Operário PR sits on 37 points (10-7-8) against Londrina's 22 points (5-7-13), supported by an overall head-to-head record of 6 wins to 1. However, Operário enters on a 5-match winless run while Londrina recently held league-leading Juventude scoreless.
Primary case
Through 25 Série B matches, Operário PR has accumulated 37 points (10 wins, 7 draws, 8 losses) compared to Londrina's 22 points (5 wins, 7 draws, 13 losses) (CL-29c5b421-d4c, CS-781ddef6-694).
Operário holds a historical head-to-head record against Londrina EC of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss (CL-e3f746bd-8e7, CS-e38b440a-dee).
Major uncertainty
Operário PR is winless in their last 5 league matches (2 draws, 3 losses) while facing a Londrina side fresh off a 0-0 draw against league leader Juventude, further undermined by stale head-to-head evidence and an unresolved odds evidence reference.
Market context
The best global price is 2.130 from Pinnacle in Europe, clearing the acceptable threshold of 2.13 under policy v1.0 with an edge of 3.70% over the de-vigged fair price of 2.054 (48.68% fair probability), though best executable price is null.
The median reference price across 5 operators is 1.950 with an overround of 5.34% and dispersion of 9.23%.
Price movement history contains only 1 sample at 2.120 from 2026-09-06T13:33:45.400Z, leaving opening trajectory unknown.
What the price requires
The price of 2.130 requires Operário PR to overcome a 48.68% fair win probability away from home despite a 5-match winless sequence.
The market assumes Londrina's season-long struggles (13 losses in 25 games) outweigh their recent defensive resilience against league-leading Juventude.
Material findings and their support8
Statistic · material · for the caseThrough 25 matches in the Série B season, Operário PR is on 37 points (10 wins, 7 draws, 8 losses), while Londrina has 22 points (5 wins, 7 draws, 13 losses).Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseOperário PR is winless in their last 5 league matches (2 draws, 3 losses), most recently drawing 1-1 away to Fortaleza on September 1, 2026.Supported
Statistic · for the caseLondrina drew 0-0 against league-leading Juventude in their round 25 fixture on September 1, 2026.Supported
Rest · for the caseBoth teams have identical rest periods heading into this fixture, having both played round 25 league matches on September 1, 2026.Partially supported
Other · material · for the caseIn round 25 of Série B, Londrina drew 0-0 with Juventude while Operário-PR drew 1-1 against Fortaleza; promotion format grants direct Série A spots to the top two and playoff berths to 3rd through 6th.Supported
Other · material · for the caseOperário holds a head-to-head record against Londrina EC of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss.Supported
Statistic · material · against the caseIn head-to-head encounters between the clubs, Operário PR leads with 6 wins to Londrina's 1 win, along with 1 draw.Stale
Venue · against the caseThe match is scheduled to be played at Estádio Vitorino Gonçalves Dias.Stale
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The position cannot be locked because material claim CL-36bfa350-ee1 is marked STALE (resting on source CS-e38b440a-dee from November 2023), resulting in an unexecutable evidence grade (B- / lockable: false), and the best global price references odds_evidence_id OE-5099faaad57385b6 which is absent from the verified odds_evidence_ids list.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The median market price of 1.950 reflects Operário PR's superior season record (10 wins vs 5 wins), while the Pinnacle 2.130 quote may reflect late market pressure against an Operário team that is winless in 5 matches.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Spread
Best verified price
2.080
Market reference
2.010 · 5 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.18 · edge -1.14%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
