Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Belgium First Div · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Evidence grade below the lockable set (and 2 more)
Gates that did not pass
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tierFailed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceNo source of a high enough tier
Failed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking
KV Kortrijk vs SV Zulte Waregem: Value Thesis Blocked by Thin and Stale Evidence
KV Kortrijk is offered at a market-best price of 3.250 by Grosvenor against a median reference price of 2.920 across 52 operators, marginally meeting the calculated threshold of 3.25. However, the thesis rests on only a single material claim comprising projected tactical lineups from a Tier 3 source, while opposing injury reports regarding Kortrijk's defense remain stale and unverified. The dossier carries an active blocking red team finding and fails evidence standards.
Primary case
KV Kortrijk is projected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation with Goduine Koyalipou leading the attack, Marko Ilic in goal, and a defensive trio of Rudy Kohon, Gilles Ruyssen, and James Ndjeungoue (CL-e9d17fb0-e07, CL-8973401f-a64).
SV Zulte Waregem is projected to deploy a 4-3-3 formation featuring Louis Bostyn in goal and an attacking trio of Tobias Hedl, Anosike Ementa, and Zalan Atrok (CL-e9d17fb0-e07, CL-b272b131-6e9).
Historical head-to-head records show 9 wins for KV Kortrijk, 14 wins for SV Zulte Waregem, and 10 draws across their recorded meetings (CS-2682cf03-a70).
Major uncertainty
The proposition to back KV Kortrijk is supported by only a single material claim consisting of unverified projected lineups from a Tier 3 source, while critical defensive injury reports for Kortrijk remain stale and unverified.
Market context
The best global price is 3.250 offered by Grosvenor in the UK market as of 2026-09-06T07:42:49.132Z, with no separate best executable price recorded.
The consensus median reference price across 52 operators stands at 2.920, with market dispersion at 11.30%.
After a proportional de-vig across 3 outcomes with an overround of 7.47%, the fair decimal price is 3.138 (fair probability of 31.87%).
Applying a 2.00% edge buffer and a 1.50% uncertainty margin establishes an acceptable threshold price of 3.25, which the current 3.250 quote meets with zero excess margin.
Price trajectory is unknown because only a single observation has been recorded.
What the price requires
The offered decimal price of 3.250 requires KV Kortrijk to win with an implied probability exceeding approximately 30.77%, versus a de-vigged fair benchmark probability of 31.87%.
The position requires the bookmaker's quote of 3.250 to represent an exploitable pricing lag or inefficiency rather than an accurate adjustment to unconfirmed defensive absences and rest deficits.
Material findings and their support10
Line-up · for the caseKV Kortrijk are projected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation with Marko Ilic in goal, backed by defenders Rudy Kohon, Gilles Ruyssen, and James Ndjeungoue, and Goduine Koyalipou as the striker.Supported
Line-up · for the caseSV Zulte Waregem are projected to field a 4-3-3 formation featuring Louis Bostyn in goal and an attacking trio of Tobias Hedl, Anosike Ementa, and Zalan Atrok.Supported
Other · material · for the caseKV Kortrijk is projected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation with Goduine Koyalipou leading the attack, while SV Zulte Waregem is projected in a 4-3-3 formation.Supported
Injury · against the caseKV Kortrijk defender Matthew Anderson is sidelined with a knee injury through early October 2026.Stale
Injury · against the caseKV Kortrijk goalkeeper Patrik Gunnarsson is doubtful with a day-to-day muscle injury.Stale
Availability · against the caseSV Zulte Waregem have no reported injuries or unavailable players heading into the match.Stale
Venue · against the caseThe match is scheduled to be played at Guldensporenstadion in Kortrijk, with Jasper Vergoote assigned as referee.Stale
Rest · against the caseKV Kortrijk played away against RSC Anderlecht on September 3, 2026, entering this fixture on three days of rest.
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The proposition to back KV Kortrijk is supported by only a single material claim (projected formations from a Tier 3 source) while critical defensive injury reports remain stale and unverified, resulting in a non-lockable Grade C evidence rating.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Blocking questions
F-01 [RESEARCH_CONCLUSION_UNSUPPORTED] Insufficient material evidence to support locking a value position on KV Kortrijk (refs: CL-e9d17fb0-e07, CS-b9064839-092)
Why the market may simply be right
The market reference median of 2.920 across 52 operators indicates broad consensus that Kortrijk should be shorter than Grosvenor's 3.250 quote, but that quote could represent an unupdated bookmaker rather than genuine value.
If Kortrijk is missing their regular goalkeeper and key defender while Zulte Waregem is fully fit, a fair price closer to or exceeding 3.25 may reflect the true underlying win probability.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.250
Market reference
2.920 · 52 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.25 · edge 3.57%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
Other · against the caseKV Kortrijk will be missing Matthew Anderson due to a knee injury and Patrik Gunnarsson is day-to-day with a muscle injury, while SV Zulte Waregem has no reported unavailable players.Stale
Other · against the caseKV Kortrijk has Matthew Anderson missing and Patrik Gunnarsson listed as doubtful for the match against SV Zulte Waregem at Guldensporenstadion.Stale
