GLINTARY
Morning Brief
GLINTARY

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Baseball · MLB ·

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees

Under 7.5 total runs · Total

Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260906-95d7e2b7
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.

Decision

Outcome
Declined after research
Main reason
Dispersion implausible (and 4 more)
Decided
Policy
v1.1

Gates that did not pass

  • EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  • PriceDispersion implausibleFailed
  • FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
  • UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  • Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
  1. Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
  2. EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
  3. PriceDispersion implausibleFailed
  4. Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
  5. FreshnessNewest supporting source older than the limitFailed
  6. UncertaintyEvidence grade below the lockable setFailed
  7. Adversarial reviewAdversarial review found a blocking objectionFailed
  8. DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
  9. PresentationPresentation compliantPassed

Why it entered research

Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.

  • Enough operators for a market reference
  • Price inside the freshness limit
  • Price above the de-vigged fair price
  • Operators disagree on the price
Screened
Market
Total
Best verified price
2.070
Market reference
1.840 · 11 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
1.99 · edge 7.81%

Research

Evidence grade CAdversarial review · Blocking

Research Position Note

The current best global price is offered by Bovada at 2.050, showing a significant dispersion against the median market reference price.

Primary case

  • The current best global price is offered by Bovada.
  • The market reference price is established using the median across a set of operators.

Market context

  • Opening price information is not available as there is only a single sample.
  • The market shows a dispersion percentage across the operators.
  • The median market reference price across 11 operators is 1.830, which is significantly lower than the Bovada price of 2.050.

What the price requires

  • Execution capability at the Bovada price point of 2.050 before any line correction to match the broader market consensus.

Major uncertainty

The current best price of 2.050 on Bovada is an outlier sitting 12.02% away from the median market reference price of 1.830, suggesting it may be a stale quote, a bad line, or unavailable for execution.

Adversarial review

The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.

The current best price of 2.050 on Bovada is an outlier sitting 12.02% away from the median market reference price of 1.830, suggesting it may be a stale quote, a bad line, or unavailable for execution.

Blocking questions

  • Is the Bovada price of 2.050 currently executable or is it a stale/phantom quote?
  • What explains the 12.02% dispersion across the 11 operators, and why are all other books pricing significantly lower than Bovada?
  • Can any liquidity actually be secured at the 2.050 price point on Bovada before the line corrects to match the market consensus?

Why the market may simply be right

  • The market reference price derived from 11 operators stands at 1.830, indicating strong consensus among the majority of bookmakers that the true probability does not support a 2.050 decimal price.