Declined after researchCandidate · not a published position
Football · Dutch Eredivisie · Starts
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
Outcome
Declined after research
Decided
Main reason
Best price too far above the market reference to be believed
Gates that did not pass
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceBest price too far above the market reference to be believedFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)
Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · No objection
ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard: Over Goals Setup Driven by High Conceding Rates and Defensive Absences
ADO Den Haag host Fortuna Sittard with both sides exhibiting porous defensive records through 4 Eredivisie fixtures, conceding 11 and 7 goals respectively while keeping zero clean sheets. Fortuna Sittard face substantial defensive depletion alongside the suspension of Ole Romeny, while ADO Den Haag miss three squad players. Market pricing at 2.340 clears the policy threshold of 2.330 against a 2.100 consensus reference price.
Primary case
Through 4 Eredivisie matches, ADO Den Haag have conceded 11 goals (2.75 per match) and scored 4, failing to keep a clean sheet.
Fortuna Sittard have scored 8 goals (2.00 per match) and conceded 7 goals (1.75 per match) over 4 matches, also recording zero clean sheets.
Fortuna Sittard are missing multiple defensive and squad options due to injury (Kristoffer Peterson, Ivan Marquez, Rodrigo Guth, Siebe Wylin, Sven Simons) and forward Ole Romeny via red card suspension.
ADO Den Haag are sidelined without Cameron Peupion, Donat Barany, and Jonas Jensen-Abbew.
Major uncertainty
The primary case relies on statistical metrics derived from just 4 early-season fixtures, where ADO Den Haag's low scoring output (1.00 goal per game) could suppress overall match scoring if Fortuna Sittard's defensive absences result in a conservative tactical setup.
Market context
The best global decimal price is 2.340 offered by Matchbook in the UK region, with no executable price currently recorded.
The market reference price is 2.100 derived from the median of 19 operators, yielding a fair decimal price of 2.250 (44.44% fair probability with 7.14% overround via proportional two-way de-vigging).
Market dispersion stands at 11.43% across 19 operators, sitting within the 12.00% policy ceiling.
Price movement tracking recorded a price of 2.280 at 2026-09-06T09:05:12.754Z across a single sample, with opening price and move percentage unknown.
What the price requires
At 2.340, the market implies an unadjusted breakeven probability of approximately 42.74%, compared to the fair probability of 44.44% derived from the 2.100 median benchmark.
The position requires game environments to continue reflecting early-season defensive vulnerability despite offensive absences.
Material findings and their support6
Suspension · material · for the caseFortuna Sittard forward Ole Romeny is serving a red card suspension and is unavailable for the match against ADO Den Haag.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseFortuna Sittard have multiple defensive and squad players sidelined with injuries, including Kristoffer Peterson, Ivan Marquez, Rodrigo Guth, Siebe Wylin, and Sven Simons.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseADO Den Haag will be without Cameron Peupion, Donat Barany, and Jonas Jensen-Abbew due to injuries.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseThrough 4 Eredivisie matches this season, ADO Den Haag have conceded 11 goals (average 2.75 per game) and scored 4 goals, keeping 0 clean sheets.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseThrough 4 Eredivisie matches this season, Fortuna Sittard have scored 8 goals (average 2.00 per game) and conceded 7 goals (average 1.75 per game), keeping 0 clean sheets.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match is hosted by ADO Den Haag at the WerkTalent Stadion in The Hague.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
No material defect or blocking objection identified. The position clears the policy acceptable threshold (2.340 vs 2.33), dispersion is within limits (11.43% vs 12.00%), all material claims are supported with no contradictions, and required personnel is not flagged as missing.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The market median of 2.100 across 19 operators may accurately account for the high 3.5-goal bar and ADO Den Haag's limited offensive production (1.00 goal per game).
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Total
Best verified price
2.400
Market reference
2.120 · 19 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.35 · edge 6.10%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
