GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
GLINTARY has not observed an entity called “” in a public scan, research case or position. A famous name that has not been on the schedule is not here, and that is deliberate.
This candidate passed every gate and was locked as GL-20260906-009. The position record is the immutable, committed statement; this page is the research and decision trail behind it.
Decision
Outcome
Published
Decided
Main reason
Every gate passed.
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
CPL 2026: St Kitts & Nevis Patriots at Guyana Amazon Warriors Market Synthesis
St Kitts & Nevis Patriots present an assessed 5.55% pricing edge at 2.740 on Betfair Exchange against a de-vigged fair price of 2.596, entering on back-to-back wins, though facing an undefeated Guyana Amazon Warriors team playing at home.
Primary case
St Kitts & Nevis Patriots enter the September 6 fixture following consecutive wins over Barbados Tridents and Saint Lucia Kings (CL-03610044-fa2).
Recent form includes individual standout performances, notably Dasun Shanaka's 121 off 39 balls and Jeremiah Louis's 5 for 10 against Saint Lucia Kings (CL-4be2f593-56e).
The available quote of 2.740 clears the acceptable price threshold of 2.69 against a fair price of 2.596 calculated from the wider market.
Major uncertainty
The edge on St Kitts & Nevis Patriots relies entirely on an isolated Betfair Exchange quote of 2.740 against an 18-operator median of 2.450 with 11.84% dispersion, facing an undefeated 4-0 Guyana Amazon Warriors team playing at home.
Market context
The best global price is 2.740 via betfair_ex_uk in the UK region, delivering an edge of 5.55% against the assessed fair decimal price of 2.596.
The market median reference price stands at 2.450 across 18 surveyed operators, with a proportional two-way de-vigged fair probability of 38.52% and overround of 5.96%.
Market dispersion across operators is measured at 11.84%, remaining within the policy ceiling of 12.00%.
Historical price movement tracking contains only a single recorded observation at 2.740, leaving opening price and trend unknown.
What the price requires
A decimal price of 2.740 requires an implied win probability of at least 36.50% to break even, compared to the market reference implied fair probability of 38.52%.
The thesis requires that St Kitts & Nevis Patriots can maintain recent batting and bowling momentum despite travel from St Kitts to Providence Stadium.
Material findings and their support8
Venue · material · for the caseThe match between Guyana Amazon Warriors and St Kitts & Nevis Patriots is scheduled for September 6, 2026, at 10:00 AM local time at Providence Stadium in Guyana.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseSt Kitts & Nevis Patriots enter the match on back-to-back victories, having defeated Barbados Tridents by 6 wickets on September 1 and Saint Lucia Kings by 137 runs on September 3.Supported
Statistic · for the caseIn their preceding match against Saint Lucia Kings, Dasun Shanaka scored 121 runs off 39 balls to set the fastest CPL century, while Jeremiah Louis recorded bowling figures of 5 wickets for 10 runs for St Kitts & Nevis Patriots.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseGuyana Amazon Warriors are undefeated through their first four matches of CPL 2026 with a 4-0 record and a net run rate of +2.604.Supported
Rest · material · for the caseGuyana Amazon Warriors played at home in Guyana on September 4 against Jamaica Kingsmen, whereas St Kitts & Nevis Patriots last played on September 3 in St Kitts before traveling to Guyana.Supported
Other · material · for the caseGuyana Amazon Warriors retained Guyanese all-rounder Quentin Sampson as their Breakout Player for the 2026 CPL season.Supported
Other · material · for the caseGudakesh Motie moved from Guyana Amazon Warriors to the Tridents franchise ahead of the 2026 CPL season.Supported
Other · material · for the caseGuyana was scheduled to host five Republic Bank Caribbean Premier League matches featuring the Guyana Amazon Warriors between September 4 and September 11.
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The edge on St Kitts & Nevis Patriots relies entirely on a single Betfair Exchange quote of 2.740 against a median market price of 2.450, with market dispersion at 11.84%—approaching the 12.00% maximum threshold—while the opposing team (Guyana Amazon Warriors) is undefeated at 4-0 playing at home.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
The median market price across 18 operators is 2.450, reflecting strong market confidence in home-team dominance by Guyana Amazon Warriors (4-0, +2.604 NRR), making 2.740 an outlier offer that the wider market rejects.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Moneyline
Best verified price
2.740
Market reference
2.450 · 18 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.69 · edge 5.75%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
