This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
What has to change
Re-enters if the best verified price reaches 2.75 (last seen 2.720).
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
Frosinone vs Venezia: Market Reference and Squad Context Synthesis
Venezia travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone following an opening run of three consecutive competitive defeats across Serie A and the Coppa Italia. The market reference decimal price for a Venezia victory is established at 2.500 across 62 operators, against a theoretical fair price of 2.651 derived from a 37.73 percent fair probability. A peak recorded price of 2.750 at PointsBet AU meets the acceptable clearance threshold, though subsequent tracking indicates a drift to 2.720 with zero executable liquidity currently confirmed.
Primary case
The market consensus median across 62 tracked bookmakers prices Venezia at 2.500, which corresponds to a de-vigged fair decimal price of 2.651 and an implied fair win probability of 37.73 percent under a 6.02 percent overround.
The recorded best available price of 2.750 via PointsBet AU provides mathematical clearance above the fair price benchmark of 2.651 and meets the required threshold.
Frosinone enter the match with squad attrition of their own, including confirmed absence of midfielder Romano Schmid and evaluation of forward Fares Ghedjemis (CL-5b66d928-a75).
Major uncertainty
The recorded peak price of 2.750 sits directly on the minimum acceptable threshold with zero excess buffer, while current market movement has already observed a drop to 2.720 with no executable price currently available.
Market context
The reference median price across 62 operators is 2.500, with a cross-operator dispersion rate of 10.00 percent.
A peak decimal price of 2.750 was captured in the Australian region via PointsBet AU, sitting directly at the minimum acceptable threshold.
The latest market monitor observation captured a lower price of 2.720 with no executable volume currently available.
Price trajectory tracking is limited to a single observation sample, leaving opening lines and trend velocities unmeasured.
What the price requires
For a position at 2.750 to retain positive expected value, Venezia must have a true probability of winning that exceeds 36.36 percent.
The consensus de-vigged model estimates Venezia's fair probability at 37.73 percent, requiring Venezia to overcome their current three-match competitive losing run and four squad injuries.
Material findings and their support7
Venue · for the caseThe match will take place at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseVenezia are without defender Marin Sverko and forward Andrea Adorante due to injury.Supported
Availability · material · for the caseVenezia defender Bartol Franjic and Matias Moreno have fitness issues and were listed on the injury report or under evaluation.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseFrosinone midfielder Romano Schmid is ruled out due to injury, while forward Fares Ghedjemis is also listed on the injury report.Supported
Rest · for the caseBoth clubs played Coppa Italia fixtures on September 2, 2026, four days prior to this match, with Venezia losing 2-1 to Udinese and Frosinone drawing 1-1 with Sassuolo.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseVenezia have zero points in Serie A through the first two matchdays following 0-2 losses against AC Milan and Lecce.Supported
Other · material · for the caseNewly-promoted Venezia were knocked out of the Coppa Italia Round of 32 in regulation time away against Udinese, while Frosinone were eliminated on penalties by Sassuolo.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The recorded best global price of 2.750 sits exactly on the acceptable threshold (2.75) with zero margin for error, while all qualitative team form and injury indicators point against Venezia, including zero points through two league matches and multiple squad absences.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
With 62 operators surveyed, the market consensus median of 2.500 represents a high-confidence consensus that accounts for Venezia's winless form and defensive absences.
The 2.750 price at PointsBet AU may reflect a temporary slow-to-update outlier rather than genuine market mispricing.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
2.720
Market reference
2.505 · 62 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
2.75 · edge 2.37%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
