This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. The case survived; only the price or recoverable data failed. It re-enters when the stated condition is met.
Decision
Outcome
Watchlist
Decided
Main reason
Recorded price below the minimum qualifying odds
What has to change
Re-enters if the best verified price reaches 3.83 (last seen 3.800).
Gates that did not pass
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)Every gate in order, with its outcome and the reason code in words.
Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
EvidenceMaterial claims supported by enough distinct sourcesPassed
PriceRecorded price below the minimum qualifying oddsFailed
Price source
Price attributable to an identified source (global reference only)
Passed
FreshnessPrice, evidence and personnel information within the age limitsPassed
UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
DuplicationNo conflicting positionPassed
PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · Low
Serie A: Frosinone vs Venezia Draw Analysis
At Stadio Benito Stirpe, 9th-place Frosinone host 19th-place Venezia. An outlier market price of 3.850 is available for the draw against a consensus median of 3.515, providing a fair price of 3.704 (27.00% probability) and barely clearing the policy hurdle of 3.84.
Primary case
Venezia enter the fixture without a point in Serie A following two losses (CL-705bb782-a2b, CL-1bf5ab18-c21) and have conceded in six consecutive matches (CS-2068657c-87b).
Frosinone sit 9th with 3 points from two matches (CL-d436e7ef-8be, CL-1bf5ab18-c21) and have conceded an average of 0.5 goals per Serie A game (CS-ea7d1b16-c24).
Venezia are depleted by injuries to Marin Sverko, Andrea Adorante, Bartol Franjic, and Matias Moreno (CL-5f766077-c0a), while Frosinone miss Romano Schmid (CL-0e904d79-585).
Major uncertainty
The recorded price of 3.850 clears the acceptable threshold of 3.84 by a razor-thin margin of 0.01 (0.26%), leaving virtually no cushion against minor model misestimations or late market contraction toward the consensus median of 3.515.
Market context
The best global price for the draw is 3.850 at unibet_se, compared against a reference median price of 3.515 across 62 operators.
The fair decimal price is estimated at 3.704 (27.00% fair probability) based on proportional de-vig with 5.37% overround.
With a 2.00% edge buffer and 1.50% uncertainty margin under policy v1.0, the hurdle threshold is 3.84, leaving a 3.94% edge.
Market dispersion is 9.53% across 62 tracked books, but best executable price is currently null and price trajectory cannot be observed due to a single sample.
What the price requires
The price of 3.850 implies an unadjusted probability of 25.97% and requires the true draw probability to exceed the de-vigged fair probability of 27.00%.
It assumes the unibet_se quote of 3.850 represents an actionable, stable market inefficiency rather than an unaligned outlier trending toward the 3.515 median.
Material findings and their support10
Injury · material · for the caseVenezia are without Marin Sverko, Andrea Adorante, Bartol Franjic, and Matias Moreno due to injury.Supported
Injury · material · for the caseFrosinone's Romano Schmid is ruled out of the match through injury.Supported
Suspension · for the caseNeither Frosinone nor Venezia have any suspensions reported for the match.Supported
Venue · for the caseThe match takes place at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.Supported
Rest · for the caseBoth teams competed in the Coppa Italia on September 2, 2026, with Frosinone drawing 1-1 against Sassuolo before losing on penalties and Venezia losing 2-1 to Udinese.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseVenezia have zero points through their opening two Serie A matches of the season with two defeats.Supported
Statistic · material · for the caseFrosinone have three points from their first two Serie A matches, recording one win and one defeat.Supported
Other · material · for the caseIn the Coppa Italia Round of 32 on September 2, 2026, Frosinone were knocked out on penalties by Sassuolo after 90 minutes, while Venezia were defeated in normal time by Udinese.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
The recorded price of 3.850 clears the acceptable threshold of 3.84 by a razor-thin margin of 0.01 (0.26%), leaving virtually no cushion against minor model misestimations or late market contraction toward the consensus median of 3.515.
Blocking questions and why the market may be right
Why the market may simply be right
With 62 operators tracked, the consensus median stands firmly at 3.515, suggesting the broad market prices the draw significantly lower than 3.850.
Tactical matchups under Giovanni Stroppa have yielded decisive results (10 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw vs Frosinone), which aligns with the market's lower median draw price.
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
The screening row for this candidate was not retained.
Market
Match Winner
Best verified price
3.800
Market reference
3.500 · 62 operators
Minimum Qualifying Odds
3.83 · edge 2.93%
Technical detailsCandidate and scan identifiers, policy version, raw timestamps.
Other · material · for the caseIn direct matches against Venezia, Frosinone holds a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses in 8 matches, while Venezia coach Giovanni Stroppa holds a record of 10 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses against Frosinone in 13 matches.Supported
Other · material · for the caseAhead of the Serie A match at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone sits in 9th place with 3 points, while Venezia is 19th with 0 points; the previous meeting between the clubs ended in a 2-1 win for Venezia.Supported
