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Jessica Pegula vs Sorana Cirstea
Sorana Cirstea to win · Moneyline
Declined after researchCandidate CAND-20260906-82e63f30
NOT AN OFFICIAL GLINTARY POSITION
This candidate was researched and did not become a published position. Nothing here was ever on the Board, in the Ledger or on X. Researched, assessed on merit and not published. Most candidates are meant to end here. The engine records this decision as PASS, which means the candidate passed through without a position.
Decision
- Outcome
- Declined after research
- Main reason
- Confirmed personnel information required and not yet published (and 1 more)
- Decided
- Policy
- v1.1
Gates that did not pass
- EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
- FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
Full gate trace (9 gates)
- Event integrityReal, identified, pre-match fixture inside the lock windowPassed
- EvidenceToo few distinct sourcesFailed
- PriceRecorded price clears the minimum qualifying oddsPassed
- Price sourcePrice attributable to an identified source (global reference only)Passed
- FreshnessConfirmed personnel information required and not yet publishedFailed
- UncertaintyNo unresolved conflict or blocking questionPassed
- Adversarial reviewAdversarial review raised no blocking objectionPassed
- DuplicationNo existing position on this eventPassed
- PresentationPresentation compliantPassed
Why it entered research
Deterministic screening facts recorded when the scan admitted this selection. No model was involved at this step.
- Enough operators for a market reference
- Price inside the freshness limit
- Price above the de-vigged fair price
- Operators disagree on the price
- Screened
- Market
- Moneyline
- Best verified price
- 3.650
- Market reference
- 3.300 · 6 operators
- Minimum Qualifying Odds
- 3.63 · edge 4.29%
Research
Evidence grade B+Adversarial review · No objection
Jessica Pegula vs. Sorana Cirstea US Open Round of 16
Jessica Pegula is scheduled to face Sorana Cirstea in the Women's US Open Round of 16 match on September 6, 2026.
Primary case
- Jessica Pegula and Sorana Cirstea are scheduled to play in the US Open Round of 16 on September 6, 2026.
- Pegula has recorded 40 hard court match wins.
- Pegula holds 31 hard court match wins this season and 47 total match wins in 2026.
- Pegula maintains a dominance ratio of 1.17 and a second-serve points won rate of 49.6 percent.
Market context
- The current best global price is offered on betrivers.
- The market reference price is established via a median calculation across a pool of several operators.
- No opening price or historical movement tracking samples are available.
- The market shows a dispersion percentage across the sampled operator prices.
What the price requires
- Pegula to win the Round of 16 match against Sorana Cirstea.
Major uncertainty
No material objection found.
Material findings and their support
- Other · material · for the caseJessica Pegula faces Sorana Cirstea in the Women's US Open Round of 16 match scheduled for September 6, 2026.Supported
- Other · material · for the caseJessica Pegula and Sorana Cirstea are scheduled to play in the US Open Round of 16 on September 6, 2026.Supported
Adversarial review
The strongest case against the candidate, as recorded before the decision.
No material objection found.